2969 Pounding Mill Branch Rd · Pounding Mill, VA 24637

$99,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1994

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This was a one time showing. It was also a foreclosure.

Key facts

• Heat pump
• Hard hardwood floors
• Private sewer

Tags

• HEAT PUMP
• HARD HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BUILT IN FIREPLACE
• FENCED IN YARD
• PRIVATE SEWER
• TWO BAY BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Tazewell County Public School District (town): math 67% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #21 of 131 in VA (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Tazewell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $264 of equity ($688 loan paydown + $-424 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Tazewell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $100k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.87%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $9,676
• Equity at exit: $26,789

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $37,941
• Equity at exit: $30,568

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24637

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,053 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $472/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $763

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $286	-5% $257	+0% $229	+5% $201	+10% $173
Rent	-10% $146	-5% $188	+0% $229	+5% $271	+10% $312
Rate	-1.0pp $279	-0.5pp $255	base $229	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2018-12-03
   soldstatus $34,200 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   This was a one time showing. It was also a foreclosure.

2. 2018-10-24
   listed $34,200 55-char remark

   Show marketing remark (55 chars)

   This was a one time showing. It was also a foreclosure.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $472 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $816 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$344/yr (+$29/mo · 72.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$472
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,011
• − Management: −$1,011
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $1,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$282
• After-tax cash flow: $2,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tazewell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103810
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,003
• Composite: 60.16/100
• National rank: #865
• State rank: #21 of 131 in VA

Livability — Pounding Mill

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,595

Population outlook (Tazewell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,275 people
• By 2030: 35,719 · -6.7%
• By 2040: 30,875 · -19.3%
• By 2050: 26,798 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 19,286 · -49.6%
• By 2100: 13,631 · -64.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 0%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tazewell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.9) · D 15.3% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -68.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.9 2020: R+67.2 2016: R+66.3 2012: R+57.5 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.43%
• Current HPI: 160.9238
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2018-12-03 Sold (MLS) $34,200 MTCBOR
• 2018-10-24 Listed $34,200 MTCBOR

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $472 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.