457 Baywood Rd · Vander, NC 28312

$194,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $184k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful home sitting in the country off Baywood Rd. This 3 bed 2 bath home has over 1500+ sq ft. Large living room with LVP flooring which opens up to the kitchen which features stainless steel appliances, kitchen island, tons of storage and great natural light. Large master bedroom with great closet space and en suite bath with upgraded vanity, and shower/tub combo. Generous sized guest bedrooms and baths makes this a great home for a growing family. Enjoy the view from the covered front porch or entertain in the fenced backyard. Welcome home.

Key facts

• New stove
• Fresh paint
• New carpet

Tags

• REMODELED PRIMARY SUITE
• BRAND NEW WINDOWS
• NEW STOVE
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW BLINDS
• NEW CARPET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.9% in Vander — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#645 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,620 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.51%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,464
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
457 Baywood Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,506 (-0%)	1mo	$181,000	$120	95
237 Schiller St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+4%)	18mo	$179,000	$114	67
4307 Frontier Ave	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,512 (0%)	15mo	$169,000	$112	65
4206 Fulton St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-2%)	21mo	$140,500	$95	60
4122 Fulton St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-12%)	4mo	$179,900	$135	60
421 Cabrini Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+0%)	22mo	$185,000	$122	60
417 Cabrini Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-11%)	12mo	$160,000	$118	51
4314 Frontier Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-7%)	22mo	$178,000	$127	44
4315 Frontier Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,312 (-13%)	7mo	$176,000	$134	44
4224 Fulton St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-12%)	17mo	$172,000	$130	43
428 Cabrini Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,297 (-14%)	22mo	$165,000	$127	37
4209 Frontier Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+15%)	18mo	$200,000	$115	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $118,612
• Equity at exit: $174,771

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.24×
• Total profit: $338,981
• Equity at exit: $376,899

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28312

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,495/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,548

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4066 Hummingbird Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,650	$1.25	23d	1	0.73mi
4243 Cinder Ln Fayetteville, NC	4.0	3.0	2144	$2,085	$0.97	13d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $194,000 Active
3. 2024-12-10
   soldstatus $165,000 Closed 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Wonderful home sitting in the country off Baywood Rd. This 3 bed 2 bath home has over 1500+ sq ft. Large living room with LVP flooring which opens up to the kitchen which features stainless steel appliances, kitchen island, tons of storage and great natural light. Large master bedroom with great closet space and en suite bath with upgraded vanity, and shower/tub combo. Generous sized guest bedrooms and baths makes this a great home for a growing family. Enjoy the view from the covered front porch or entertain in the fenced backyard. Welcome home.

4. 2024-12-10
   soldstatus $165,000

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Wonderful home sitting in the country off Baywood Rd. This 3 bed 2 bath home has over 1500+ sq ft. Large living room with LVP flooring which opens up to the kitchen which features stainless steel appliances, kitchen island, tons of storage and great natural light. Large master bedroom with great closet space and en suite bath with upgraded vanity, and shower/tub combo. Generous sized guest bedrooms and baths makes this a great home for a growing family. Enjoy the view from the covered front porch or entertain in the fenced backyard. Welcome home.

5. 2024-11-10
   status Pending 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Wonderful home sitting in the country off Baywood Rd. This 3 bed 2 bath home has over 1500+ sq ft. Large living room with LVP flooring which opens up to the kitchen which features stainless steel appliances, kitchen island, tons of storage and great natural light. Large master bedroom with great closet space and en suite bath with upgraded vanity, and shower/tub combo. Generous sized guest bedrooms and baths makes this a great home for a growing family. Enjoy the view from the covered front porch or entertain in the fenced backyard. Welcome home.

6. 2024-11-01
   listed $165,000 Active 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Wonderful home sitting in the country off Baywood Rd. This 3 bed 2 bath home has over 1500+ sq ft. Large living room with LVP flooring which opens up to the kitchen which features stainless steel appliances, kitchen island, tons of storage and great natural light. Large master bedroom with great closet space and en suite bath with upgraded vanity, and shower/tub combo. Generous sized guest bedrooms and baths makes this a great home for a growing family. Enjoy the view from the covered front porch or entertain in the fenced backyard. Welcome home.

7. 2024-10-16
   historical $165,000 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Wonderful home sitting in the country off Baywood Rd. This 3 bed 2 bath home has over 1500+ sq ft. Large living room with LVP flooring which opens up to the kitchen which features stainless steel appliances, kitchen island, tons of storage and great natural light. Large master bedroom with great closet space and en suite bath with upgraded vanity, and shower/tub combo. Generous sized guest bedrooms and baths makes this a great home for a growing family. Enjoy the view from the covered front porch or entertain in the fenced backyard. Welcome home.

8. 2019-04-16
   soldstatus $80,000
9. 2015-09-23
   soldstatus $28,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,495 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,591 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$96/yr (+$8/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$1,495
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable loss: −$769
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$185
• After-tax cash flow: $2,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Vander

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #23450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vander, NC
• Population (ZIP): 19,889

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.75%
• Current HPI: 306.7749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+580.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $194,000 LPRMLS
• 2024-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-10 Sold (MLS) $165,000 LPRMLS
• 2024-11-10 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2024-11-01 Listed $165,000 LPRMLS
• 2024-10-16 Coming Soon $165,000 LPRMLS
• 2019-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,495 · +86.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.