10431 Vineyard Ln · Gonzalez, FL 32534

$140,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,168 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1963 1.26 ac lot Est $211k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property is probably good for land only but the house does have a newer medal roof and is on a slap. Waiting on zoning to tell me how many homes new homes can be put here.

Key facts

• Newer metal roof
• On a slab
• 1.26 acre lot

Tags

• NEWER METAL ROOF
• ON A SLAB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $697 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.33%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,408
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Leebeck Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,186 (+2%)	6mo	$214,900	$181	60
10557 Senegal Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (-2%)	11mo	$217,000	$190	45
1390 Tara Dawn Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,285 (+10%)	3mo	$210,000	$163	43
401 Ronda St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (+11%)	10mo	$190,000	$146	33
10011 Holsberry Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,025 (-12%)	15mo	$199,000	$194	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $22,987
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $82,518
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32534

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,028 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,353/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $697

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $776	-5% $737	+0% $697	+5% $657	+10% $618
Rent	-10% $537	-5% $617	+0% $697	+5% $777	+10% $857
Rate	-1.0pp $767	-0.5pp $733	base $697	+0.5pp $661	+1.0pp $624

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 Cohasset Ct Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1391	$1,875	$1.35	15d	1	0.55mi
3310 Bliss Ln Cantonment, FL	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,100	$1.41	15d	1	0.87mi
9980 Bowman Ave Unit N Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,595	$1.39	22d	1	1.39mi
9980 Bowman Ave Unit L Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,595	$1.39	15d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 171-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $140,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,353 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,353 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,353
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,947
• − Management: −$1,947
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $6,475
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,554
• After-tax cash flow: $6,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gonzalez, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,104
• Household income: $58,992
• Rent vs Own: 44.8% rent · 55.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 540.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 30% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 255.7617
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.63%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $140,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,353 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.