2186 SW 153rd Loop · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · Land · 25 Days on market

Built 2026 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The stunning Sylvester floor plan offers four spacious bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a rare three-car garage, and 1,806 square feet of beautifully designed living space. This open-concept home features a bright and welcoming great room that flows effortlessly into a modern kitchen, where a gorgeous walk-around island creates the perfect centerpiece for entertaining and everyday living. The split-bedroom layout offers maximum privacy, with the owner’s suite thoughtfully positioned on one side of the home and three additional bedrooms on the other. This is the perfect setup for families, guests, or even a home office. This new home includes a one year full builder's

Key facts

• Three car garage
• Split bedroom layout
• Great room

Tags

• THREE CAR GARAGE
• OPEN CONCEPT HOME
• GREAT ROOM
• MODERN KITCHEN
• WALK AROUND ISLAND
• SPLIT BEDROOM LAYOUT

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-653/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,017 students, 73% FRL); Horizon Academy At Marion Oaks (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,067 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $290k implies a 4361% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,698 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-56,725
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-78,117
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,087 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $739/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,156

Max offer price $280,379

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $28	+0% $-54	+5% $-136	+10% $-219
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-137	+0% $-54	+5% $28	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $19	base $-54	+0.5pp $-130	+1.0pp $-206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2161 SW 153rd Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$2,000	$1.27	23d	1	0.14mi
16008 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,400	$1.37	23d	1	0.14mi
15761 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$2,000	$1.63	23d	1	0.16mi
15741 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	15d	1	0.16mi
15701 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	23d	1	0.17mi
16124 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,715	$1.26	15d	1	0.32mi
2500 SW 156th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	23d	1	0.34mi
16200 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,800	$1.14	23d	1	0.35mi
529 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1883	$2,200	$1.17	15d	1	0.38mi
2240 SW 156th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,600	$1.02	23d	1	0.42mi
16252 SW 27th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.44mi
15353 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	15d	1	0.48mi
2673 SW 156th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	15d	1	0.49mi
1631 SW 160th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,795	$1.11	15d	1	0.51mi
2725 SW 158th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,000	$1.27	15d	1	0.53mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	15d	1	0.54mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,699	$1.08	23d	1	0.54mi
2584 SW 154th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,975	$1.58	23d	1	0.54mi
2670 162nd Ln Unit 2670 Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	23d	1	0.61mi
16390 SW 17th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,825	$1.16	15d	1	0.62mi
2711 SW 162nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,150	$1.20	15d	1	0.66mi
2705 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,745	$1.10	23d	1	0.67mi
2660 SW 162nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,999	$1.13	23d	1	0.68mi
16015 SW 29th Court Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,450	$1.10	23d	1	0.73mi
2603 SW 152nd Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	1.5	1402	$1,550	$1.11	15d	1	0.79mi
2836 SW 161st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	15d	1	0.82mi
15434 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,780	$1.27	15d	1	0.83mi
1663 SW 167th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	15d	1	0.91mi
16292 SW 30th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	23d	1	0.96mi
2220 SW 169th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,650	$1.21	23d	1	1.00mi
16846 SW 22nd Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,900	$1.20	15d	1	1.01mi
2628 SW 165th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	1.05mi
16619 SW 31st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	15d	1	1.16mi
15831 SW 34th Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,715	$1.22	15d	1	1.16mi
2211 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	23d	1	1.16mi
14693 SW 21st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,675	$1.20	15d	1	1.18mi
2598 SW 147th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,750	$1.21	15d	1	1.19mi
16690 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,725	$1.07	23d	1	1.19mi
15415 SW 34th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	23d	1	1.23mi
16100 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	15d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   listed $289,990 Active
3. 2004-07-29
   soldstatus $6,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $739 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,407 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,668/yr (+$139/mo · 225.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$739
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,004
• − Management: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,400
• After-tax cash flow: $747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4361.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $289,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $6,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $739 · +100.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.