312 Prospect Dr · Trinity, TX 75862

$225,000

6 bd · None ba · 1,601 sqft · MultiFamily · 234 Days on market

Built 1946 Fair condition 1.09 ac lot $141/sqft · 28% above area Est $175k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Opportunity with Highway 19 Frontage! This well-maintained property features three rental units situated on just over one acre of land with prime frontage along Highway 19. The setup includes a duplex offering two 1-bedroom, 1-bath units, plus a separate studio apartment next door — all currently occupied. With ample space to expand, this property presents a fantastic opportunity to increase rental income by adding more units or amenities. Alternatively, it can remain a peaceful retreat just as it is — a quiet slice of heaven with strong rental history and growth potential.

Key facts

• Growth potential
• Three rental units
• One acre of land

Tags

• THREE RENTAL UNITS
• ONE ACRE OF LAND
• DUPLEX OFFERING TWO UNITS
• SEPARATE STUDIO APARTMENT
• STRONG RENTAL HISTORY
• GROWTH POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $225k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $101/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.2% in Trinity — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,405 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Trinity ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #682 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lansberry El (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 570 students, 91% FRL); Trinity J H (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 280 students, 91% FRL); Trinity H S (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 350 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 50% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $393 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
5. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.86%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,399
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: 28.28%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $960
• Equity at exit: $59,578

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $41,153
• Equity at exit: $67,170

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 16.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $281	+0% $203	+5% $125	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $115	+0% $203	+5% $291	+10% $379
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $260	base $203	+0.5pp $145	+1.0pp $85

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	—	$2,226
Total (2 units)			$2,225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $225,000 Active 234 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 232 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 231 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 230 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 229 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 228 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 226 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 223 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 222 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 221 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 220 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 217 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 213 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 212 DOM
18. 2025-10-30
    listed $225,000 Active 603-char remark

    Show marketing remark (603 chars)

    Investment Opportunity with Highway 19 Frontage! This well-maintained property features three rental units situated on just over one acre of land with prime frontage along Highway 19. The setup includes a duplex offering two 1-bedroom, 1-bath units, plus a separate studio apartment next door — all currently occupied. With ample space to expand, this property presents a fantastic opportunity to increase rental income by adding more units or amenities. Alternatively, it can remain a peaceful retreat just as it is — a quiet slice of heaven with strong rental history and growth potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$293
• After-tax cash flow: $2,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property offers a moderate renovation opportunity with potential for significant value increase through exterior updates and roof replacement.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — visible wear
• Major exterior paint — moderate paint wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace roof — extends life and improves value
• Both update kitchen and baths — modernizes and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · moderate paint wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace roof — extends life and improves value ↑
• Both update kitchen and baths — modernizes and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinity ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,104
• Composite: 23.31/100
• National rank: #7919
• State rank: #682 of 826 in TX

Livability — Trinity

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1405
• US rank: #24056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trinity, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Listed $225,000 HARMLS