463 Mount Zoar St · Elmira, NY 14904

$19,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1930 1,891 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BEDROOM, 2 STORY - NO OFF STREET PARKING

Key facts

• 1,891 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 110 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $903 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 60.8% vs local median 10.1% in Elmira — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $14k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 60.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 194.56%
• DSCR: 9.66
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,436
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 Partridge St	0.17mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,274 (-3%)	1mo	$47,000	$37	79
478 Mount Zoar St	0.05mi	4/1.0	1,456 (+11%)	2mo	$35,000	$24	78
502 Partridge St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,294 (-2%)	7mo	$28,000	$22	73
461 W Hudson St	0.29mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,331 (+1%)	6mo	$93,906	$71	72
562 Baty St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (-2%)	5mo	$111,702	$86	71
626 Decker Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,335 (+1%)	2mo	$142,000	$106	69
309 Broadway St	0.21mi	4/1.0	1,468 (+12%)	3mo	$78,000	$53	69
213 Juanita St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (+0%)	6mo	$21,000	$16	67
607 Partridge St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,218 (-7%)	3mo	$126,000	$103	66
570 Cypress St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,307 (-1%)	1mo	$127,200	$97	65
809 Chamberlain St	0.75mi	4/1.0	1,328 (+1%)	5mo	$138,192	$104	60
310 Cottage Pl	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,178 (-10%)	6mo	$32,000	$27	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.75×
• Total profit: $54,334
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.80×
• Total profit: $121,485
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$25 /mo · $298/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $174

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
363 W Water St #2 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,250	$1.15	43d	1	0.59mi
514 W 1st St Unit A Elmira, NY	4.0	1.0	1416	$1,275	$0.90	43d	1	0.80mi
106 W 2nd St Unit A Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1395	$1,400	$1.00	43d	1	0.98mi
355 W Clinton St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.5	1650	$1,400	$0.85	43d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-01-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-20
   price $19,900
3. 2026-01-11
   status Active
4. 2025-10-01
   status Pending
5. 2025-07-01
   price $24,900
6. 2025-06-24
   listed $30,000 Active
7. 2003-11-26
   soldstatus $13,600 42-char remark

   Show marketing remark (42 chars)

   3 BEDROOM, 2 STORY - NO OFF STREET PARKING

8. 2003-08-01
   listed $17,000 42-char remark

   Show marketing remark (42 chars)

   3 BEDROOM, 2 STORY - NO OFF STREET PARKING

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$298
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,265
• − Management: −$1,265
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $11,190
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,686
• After-tax cash flow: $8,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmira

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #16139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmira, NY
• City population: 14,276
• Population (ZIP): 14,276

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+17.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $19,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-11 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-10-01 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $24,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $30,000 UNYREIS
• 2003-11-26 Sold (MLS) $13,600 UNYREIS
• 2003-08-01 Listed $17,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,850 · -10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.