8165 Buckthorn Cir · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$134,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,340 sqft · Manufactured public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1985 5,549 sqft lot Est $135k · at est. $338/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Land owned home featuring new subflooring redone in December. The extra-large primary bedroom offers updated vanities and flooring. The guest bathroom also includes a new vanity and flooring. New carpet has been installed in the bedrooms, living room, and dining area, while the kitchen and baths have Luxury Vinyl floors. This home feels exceptionally roomy and open, filled with natural light from windows across the front of the home. Enjoy a private backyard space with no rear neighbors or sit out on the lanai. Low HOA of only $338.39 includes cable, internet, sewer, and trash. Located in the active 55+ Savanna Club, offering three clubhouses with pools and fitness rooms, an on-site restau

Key facts

• New carpet
• No rear neighbors
• Updated vanities

Tags

• NEW SUBFLOORING
• UPDATED VANITIES
• NEW CARPET
• EASY-CARE LINOLEUM TILE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD SPACE
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community; Association fee paid monthly and includes cable TV, sewer, trash, common areas and recreation facility
• Financial info: Not a land lease; Pets allowed with possible breed restrictions and limits
• HOA & community: Community association with monthly HOA fee; Association amenities include: clubhouse, pool (heated), spa/hot tub, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball and shuffleboard courts, golf course and putting green, bocce ball, basketball court, billiard and game rooms, business center, library, cafe/restaurant, management and on-site manager, sauna, heated pool, internet included

Exterior

• Parking: Two total parking spaces; Attached carport (deeded) with two covered spaces; Driveway
• Security: Closed-circuit cameras; Security patrol
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Three-phase electric service; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Resale condition; Northwest facing
• Construction: Modular construction; Composition shingle roof; Single-story building
• Exterior features: No waterfront; Road frontage east of US-1

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Bedroom layout with stacked configuration; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Outside laundry area; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $135k implies a 1024% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.15%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,340
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2948 Fiddlewood Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,280 (-4%)	1mo	$122,000	$95	84
3033 Satinleaf Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	4mo	$195,000	$156	73
110 W Caribbean	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,416 (+6%)	5mo	$77,500	$55	72
3005 Approach Shot Way	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,333 (-0%)	3mo	$149,900	$112	71
192 W Caribbean	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,416 (+6%)	6mo	$49,000	$35	71
7 Giralda	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-10%)	4mo	$21,000	$18	66
8526 Lidflower Ct	0.31mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,404 (+5%)	6mo	$70,900	$50	65
8394 Delphinium Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+4%)	4mo	$220,000	$158	64
10 Padre	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,280 (-4%)	4mo	$38,000	$30	62
7953 Horned Lark Cir	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,286 (-4%)	1mo	$130,000	$101	59
8504 Gallberry Cir	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,264 (-6%)	4mo	$178,000	$141	55
3422 Feriwinkle Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,184 (-12%)	4mo	$205,000	$173	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,402
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,067
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,993 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,596/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$338
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,668

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	13d	15	0.46mi
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	23d	1	0.53mi
3784 Sapodilla Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,300	$2.05	23d	1	0.67mi
1810 SE Pinewood Trl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,055	$2.03	13d	7	0.77mi
1811 SE Walton Lakes Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,926	$1.72	13d	6	0.79mi
1131 SE Parrish Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0	902	$2,000	$2.22	23d	1	0.92mi
2082 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1524	$1,850	$1.21	23d	1	0.94mi
2058 SE Wild Meadow Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.5	1425	$2,200	$1.54	13d	1	0.96mi
2183 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1550	$1,900	$1.23	13d	1	1.00mi
2130 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,695	$1.18	13d	1	1.01mi
2209 SE East Dunbrooke Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$2,950	$2.43	13d	1	1.10mi
1455 SE Colchester Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,795	$1.95	13d	1	1.19mi
1516 SE Royal Green Cir #202 Port St Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	921	$2,100	$2.28	23d	1	1.29mi
1520 SE Royal Green Cir Unit K-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	23d	1	1.31mi
1500 SE Tiffany Club Pl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,922	$2.15	13d	7	1.40mi
1537 SE Royal Green Cir Unit E204 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,750	$1.98	13d	1	1.44mi
1618 SE Elkhart Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,200	$1.87	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $338 · $4,056/yr
• Likely covers: sewertrashinternetcablepool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $134,900 Pending 158 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $134,900 Active Under Contract 158 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $134,900 Active Under Contract 157 DOM
4. 2026-05-22
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-05-08
   price $134,900
6. 2026-04-07
   price $139,900
7. 2026-02-20
   price $149,900
8. 2025-12-24
   listed $164,900 Active
9. 1986-01-01
   soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,596 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,596 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,596
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − HOA: −$4,056
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $1,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$308
• After-tax cash flow: $2,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1024.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $134,900 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $139,900 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $149,900 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-24 Listed $164,900 Beaches MLS
• 1986-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,596 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.