3950 Mack Rd #195 · Sacramento, CA 95823

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1983 Est $136k · 17% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to the desirable, all-ages Brooke Meadow Community! READY TO MOVE, 3 bed and 2 bath with upgrades throughout the house, laminate floor, granite counters, AC (4 years old ) roof (5 years) stove washer and dryer and refrigerator all new, upgrade windows, Located within the Elk Grove Unified school district, near shopping and lots of extra parking for guests. Double wide, cozy, covered porch with a nice sized deck, covered carport an good size of shed, COME AND SEE IT !!!!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Good size shed
• Laminate floor

Tags

• LAMINATE FLOOR
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• COVERED PORCH
• NICE SIZED DECK
• COVERED CARPORT
• GOOD SIZE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount listed as $1,100
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Deck (parking area listed)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home (in park); Double wide; Built in 1983; Address: 3950 Mack Rd #195, Sacramento, CA 95823
• Construction: Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Fenced lot; Covered parking; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Great room living area; Stone kitchen counters
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer and dryer included; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 181 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.24%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,224
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3950 Mack Rd #56	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	12mo	$165,000	$156	83
3950 Mack Rd #66	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	3mo	$149,000	$129	78
3950 Mack Rd #140	0.17mi	2/1.5 (-1)	952 (-10%)	8mo	$85,000	$89	62
3950 Mack Rd #20	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+9%)	18mo	$144,600	$126	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,375
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $30,857
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95823

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7726 Laurie Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1069	$2,075	$1.94	7d	1	0.25mi
4074 Weymouth Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,498	$2.08	17d	1	0.54mi
4066 Weymouth Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1323	$1,900	$1.44	43d	1	0.56mi
7605 Franklin Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	824	$1,645	$2.00	2d	1	0.67mi
4400 Shining Star Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1225	$2,768	$2.26	43d	1	0.84mi
2777 Meadowview Rd Unit 2781 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	21d	1	0.86mi
4264 Chinquapin Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,195	$2.44	43d	1	0.92mi
74 La Fresa Ct #3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,950	$2.32	43d	1	0.93mi
3249 Torrance Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1258	$2,599	$2.07	23d	1	0.93mi
7408 Franklin Blvd #2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	21d	1	0.95mi
4623 Goya Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,400	$1.93	43d	1	1.02mi
4407 Bouts Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	43d	1	1.03mi
7638 24th St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	976	$1,900	$1.95	43d	1	1.05mi
4417 A Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,200	$1.53	43d	1	1.13mi
26 Nedra Ct Unit A1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	20d	1	1.14mi
26 Nedra Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	43d	1	1.14mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	801	$1,891	$2.36	20d	1	1.21mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	801	$1,731	$2.16	17d	1	1.21mi
7400 Loma Verde Way Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$2,100	$2.44	3d	1	1.28mi
7826 Center Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	737	$1,795	$2.43	43d	1	1.40mi
7236 East Pkwy Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	776	$1,645	$2.12	3d	1	1.42mi
7238 East Pkwy Apt B5 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,645	$1.61	7d	1	1.43mi
5500 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	856	$1,603	$1.87	7d	1	1.47mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $4,997
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,199
• After-tax cash flow: $6,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 83,607
• Household income: $66,895
• Rent vs Own: 52.4% rent · 47.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4034.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Asian 25% Black 17% Two or more races 16% White 11% Pacific Islander 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Other Indo-European 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -331.02%
• Current HPI: 377.4278
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $210 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.