68 Pelican Dr S · Oldsmar, FL 34677

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1986 3,855 sqft lot Est $168k · at est. $70/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into Florida living at its best in this beautifully maintained home located in the highly desirable Gull-Aire Village, a 55+ community in the heart of Oldsmar. This spacious residence offers an inviting open layout, abundant natural light, and comfortable indoor–outdoor living perfect for year-round enjoyment. The home features a bright kitchen with ample cabinetry, a generous living and dining area, and well-sized bedrooms designed for privacy and convenience. Enjoy morning coffee or evening breezes from the enclosed Florida room, adding valuable extra living space. Gull-Aire Village residents enjoy a heated community pool, spa, clubhouse, shuffleboard, and a full calendar of so

Key facts

• Waterfront parks
• Clubhouse
• Spa

Tags

• ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• HEATED COMMUNITY POOL
• SPA
• CLUBHOUSE
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• WATERFRONT PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot around 0.09 acres (approximately 0 to less than 1/4 acre); Asphalt road access
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $70) — association requires approval; Association amenities include pool, clubhouse, recreational facilities, management, escrow reserves fund, common area taxes; Community features: club house, pool, sidewalks, wheelchair access, association-owned recreation, golf carts allowed, buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs, number limit)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces south; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Frame construction; Other roof type; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Awnings; Exterior lighting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.8% in Oldsmar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#49 in FL, #908 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: amenities D-.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 283 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $165k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.98%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,168
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
245 Pelican Dr N	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+1%)	10mo	$169,900	$154	80
223 Dolphin Dr N	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+5%)	2mo	$235,000	$204	77
38 Willow Creek Ct #5	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	1mo	$142,500	$127	61
43 New Fawn Ct #28	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+1%)	17mo	$179,000	$162	55
59 Cottagewood Dr #142	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	18mo	$190,000	$152	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-25,240
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-34,495
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34677

• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $426/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,856

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Dolphin Dr S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,550	$2.34	12d	1	0.04mi
86 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	24d	1	0.17mi
2012 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,200	$1.92	24d	1	0.17mi
1924 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,315	$1.82	7d	1	0.22mi
1 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	10d	1	0.23mi
225 Tarpon Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	4d	1	0.33mi
211 Countryside Key Blvd Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,899	$1.48	24d	1	0.43mi
1810 Driftwood Cir S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1456	$2,700	$1.85	4d	1	0.47mi
108 Nina Way #3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,695	$1.55	24d	1	0.70mi
161 Lakeside Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	17d	1	0.78mi
36 Magnolia Ct #4 Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	17d	1	0.84mi
122 Caryl Way Bldg 1 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,850	$1.69	24d	1	0.85mi
218 Caryl Way Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,740	$1.59	12d	1	0.85mi
107 Windward Pl Unit 107 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$2,000	$2.28	17d	1	0.86mi
109 Nancy Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,750	$1.60	16d	1	0.88mi
109 Nancy Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,750	$1.60	2d	1	0.88mi
112 Woodlands Ct Unit 1 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	24d	1	0.89mi
414 Meadow Ln Oldsmar, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	24d	1	0.91mi
114 Meadow Ln #114 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$1,700	$1.93	24d	1	0.93mi
3001 Landmark Blvd #101 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,950	$1.44	24d	1	0.93mi
3640 Meriden Ave Unit 3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.0	980	$1,575	$1.61	12d	1	0.93mi
3664 Meriden Ave Unit A Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$1,795	$1.85	24d	1	0.96mi
47 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,750	$1.59	23d	1	0.99mi
46 Emerald Bay Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1235	$2,000	$1.62	12d	1	0.99mi
3149 Huron Ave Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,595	$1.39	17d	1	1.03mi
284 Woodlake Wynde Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$2,000	$2.16	24d	1	1.04mi
336 Woodlake Wynde Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$2,000	$2.16	17d	1	1.04mi
3141 Huron Ave Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1089	$1,875	$1.72	24d	1	1.05mi
207 Woodlake Wynde Unit 207 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$2,100	$2.27	24d	1	1.07mi
100 Old Village Way Oldsmar, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,475	$1.38	1d	9	1.09mi
133 Sabal Ct Unit B Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	14d	1	1.11mi
133 Sabal Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	957	$1,495	$1.56	24d	2	1.11mi
103 Palmetto Ct #103 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,800	$1.71	24d	1	1.11mi
109 Pine Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$2,300	$2.18	24d	1	1.11mi
207 Palmetto Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,700	$1.61	24d	1	1.11mi
244 Cypress Ln Unit 244 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$2,000	$1.90	24d	1	1.13mi
212 Cypress Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,600	$1.52	7d	1	1.13mi
132 E Cypress Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,800	$1.71	19d	1	1.15mi
135 W Cypress Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$2,100	$1.99	24d	1	1.15mi
274 Cypress Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,600	$1.52	24d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $165,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 693-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $426 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$944/yr (+$79/mo · 221.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$426
• − Insurance: −$5,944
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$269
• After-tax cash flow: $1,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Oldsmar

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #908

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oldsmar, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 22,762
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,762
• Household income: $93,474
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 548.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.17%
• Current HPI: 296.7786
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 1983-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $2,777,200 Public Records
• 1982-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $2,806,600 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $426 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.