418 W 3rd St · Lonoke, AR
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,499 – $2,785
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 110°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 20 days/yr
Wind risk 4/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 9.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +29.1/30.0
- ARV discount +13.2/15.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +7.1/10.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Schools +2.6/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$112,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
This spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath brick home has over 1,900 sq. ft. Split floor plan, separate dining room, large living room, laundry room that goes out to the patio and back yard. Sitting on a nice tree shaded corner lot.
Key facts
- 0.25 acre lot
- 2 parking spots
- Built 1960
Property features AI
Finance
- Financial info: Financing considered: conventional loan or cash
Exterior
- Parking: Carport with side entry for 2 cars
- Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Municipal electric (Entergy)
- Home design: Brick exterior
- Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
- Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Outside storage area; Level, corner lot in a subdivision; Inside city limits
Interior
- Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Gas range
- Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Tile
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
- Interior features: Washer and dryer connections (dryer electric); Gas water heater; Wood-burning site-built fireplace; Sheetrock and paneling walls/ceilings
- Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer connection; Dryer connection (electric)
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $112k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
- Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.7% in Lonoke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 63/100 on livability (#195 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
- Lonoke School District (town): math 30% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #146 of 238 in AR (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.21% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.44%
- Cash-on-cash
- 14.82%
- DSCR
- 1.66
- GRM
- 6.9
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $128,350
- List price
- $112,000
- Delta
- -12.74%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 220 College St | 0.29mi | 3/2.0 | 1,762 (-8%) | 0mo | $190,000 | $108 | 73 |
| 416 England St | 0.14mi | 4/1.0 (+1) | 1,875 (-2%) | 18mo | $190,000 | $101 | 66 |
| 320 E 4th St | 0.39mi | 3/2.0 | 1,821 (-5%) | 12mo | $219,000 | $120 | 64 |
| 203 E Ash St | 0.41mi | 3/1.5 | 1,843 (-4%) | 13mo | $205,000 | $111 | 62 |
| 215 E 8th St | 0.41mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,847 (-3%) | 14mo | $208,500 | $113 | 58 |
| 611 College St | 0.54mi | 3/2.5 | 1,889 (-1%) | 18mo | $50,500 | $27 | 56 |
| 918 England St | 0.38mi | 3/2.0 | 1,712 (-10%) | 13mo | $172,500 | $101 | 54 |
| 520 E 8 St | 0.63mi | 3/2.0 | 1,827 (-4%) | 11mo | $236,000 | $129 | 54 |
| 304 Conway St | 0.55mi | 2/2.5 (-1) | 1,920 (+0%) | 16mo | $147,000 | $77 | 53 |
| 203 Frank T Bunton | 0.52mi | 3/2.0 | 1,960 (+3%) | 23mo | $62,500 | $32 | 52 |
| 221 Barker St | 0.43mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,992 (+4%) | 21mo | $182,500 | $92 | 51 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 5.3%
- Equity multiple
- 1.21×
- Total profit
- $6,488
- Equity at exit
- $16,700
- IRR
- 14.7%
- Equity multiple
- 2.19×
- Total profit
- $37,267
- Equity at exit
- $9,684
Cash invested: $31,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arkansas
- 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 72086
- Home prices YoY
- -18.4%
- Active inventory
- 61
- Price-to-rent
- 6.9×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,350 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$587
- Tax from tax record
- −$45 /mo · $541/yr
- Insurance
- −$47
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$284
- Net cashflow
- $387
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $451 | -5% $419 | +0% $387 | +5% $356 | +10% $324 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $281 | -5% $334 | +0% $387 | +5% $441 | +10% $494 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $444 | -0.5pp $416 | base $387 | +0.5pp $358 | +1.0pp $329 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $28,000
- Closing costs
- $3,360
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 202 Rosemary Ln Lonoke, AR | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1780 | $1,350 | $0.76 | 44d | 1 | 0.52mi |
Listing history 11 events
-
2026-05-14status Under Contract 502-char remark
-
2026-05-13status Pending (FC, SS, REO) 502-char remark
-
2026-05-02$112,000 New Listing 502-char remark
-
2026-02-21historical $850
-
2026-01-16$850
-
2020-07-24soldstatus $104,000
-
2020-07-17soldstatus $104,000 Sold 220-char remark
Show marketing remark (220 chars)
This spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath brick home has over 1,900 sq. ft. Split floor plan, separate dining room, large living room, laundry room that goes out to the patio and back yard. Sitting on a nice tree shaded corner lot.
-
2020-07-16status Under Contract 220-char remark
Show marketing remark (220 chars)
This spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath brick home has over 1,900 sq. ft. Split floor plan, separate dining room, large living room, laundry room that goes out to the patio and back yard. Sitting on a nice tree shaded corner lot.
-
2020-05-31historical Take Backups 220-char remark
Show marketing remark (220 chars)
This spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath brick home has over 1,900 sq. ft. Split floor plan, separate dining room, large living room, laundry room that goes out to the patio and back yard. Sitting on a nice tree shaded corner lot.
-
2020-05-25$105,900 New Listing 220-char remark
Show marketing remark (220 chars)
This spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath brick home has over 1,900 sq. ft. Split floor plan, separate dining room, large living room, laundry room that goes out to the patio and back yard. Sitting on a nice tree shaded corner lot.
-
2003-11-13soldstatus $50,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $541 · $45/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $717 · $60/mo
- Expected delta
- +$176/yr (+$15/mo · 32.5%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $16,200
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,274
- − Property taxes
- −$541
- − Insurance
- −$560
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,296
- − Management
- −$1,296
- − Depreciation
- −$3,258
- Taxable income
- $2,975
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$714
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,935/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Lonoke School District
- NCES district ID
- 0509060
- Math proficiency
- 30% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 31% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $46,440
- Composite
- 26.28/100
- National rank
- #7247
- State rank
- #146 of 238 in AR
Livability — Lonoke
- Score
- 63/100
- State rank
- #195
- US rank
- #15446
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Lonoke, AR
- Population (ZIP)
- 12,250
Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 78,072 people
- By 2030
- 80,673 · +3.3%
- By 2040
- 84,977 · +8.8%
- By 2050
- 87,778 · +12.4%
- By 2075
- 91,398 · +17.1%
- By 2100
- 87,858 · +12.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (79%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 79% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 6%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -44.46%
- Current HPI
- 197.6009
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.80%
- F500 in state
- 10
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Retail | 1 | $681B |
|
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| Food / Agriculture | 1 | $53B |
|
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| Retail / Energy | 1 | $22B |
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| Transportation / Logistics | 1 | $12B |
|
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| Energy | 1 | $4B |
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Price history
+124.0% since first listed11 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-14 Pending — CARMLS
- 2026-05-13 Pending — CARMLS
- 2026-05-02 Listed $112,000 CARMLS
- 2026-02-21 Rental Removed $850 CARMLS
- 2026-01-16 Listed for Rent $850 CARMLS
- 2020-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
- 2020-07-17 Sold (MLS) $104,000 CARMLS
- 2020-07-16 Pending — CARMLS
- 2020-05-31 Contingent — CARMLS
- 2020-05-25 Listed $105,900 CARMLS
- 2003-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+0.9%/yrLatest (2025): $541 · -15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…