10257 S Winter Ave · Fortuna Foothills, AZ 85365

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2002 6,873 sqft lot Est $236k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 1,404 SQFT of comfortable living space with a functional layout and inviting atmosphere! This home features laminate and carpet flooring throughout, central cooling, forced air gas heating, and bright living spaces designed for everyday comfort. The kitchen comes equipped with range/oven, refrigerator, and dishwasher, while the washer & dryer are conveniently located in the utility room adjacent to the kitchen with direct access to the backyard. Spacious bedrooms provide flexibility for family living, guests, office space, or hobbies. Situated on a generous 6,873 SQFT lot with private on-site parking, plenty of outdoor potential,

Key facts

• Central cooling
• Dishwasher
• Refrigerator

Tags

• LAMINATE AND VINYL FLOORING
• CENTRAL COOLING
• FORCED AIR GAS HEATING
• RANGE OVEN
• REFRIGERATOR
• DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Curbs; Sidewalks; Located in Seasons RV Village

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; RV access/parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Residential manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Gas range
• Flooring: Laminate; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Blinds; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.2% in Fortuna Foothills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#174 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Yuma Union High School District (4507) (urban): math 14% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #212 of 249 in AZ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gila Ridge High School (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #263 of 381 statewide, top 70%, 2,309 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,286 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,872
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10395 S Fall Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+4%)	2mo	$209,000	$144	76
10218 S Winter Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (+1%)	20mo	$237,500	$168	75
10353 S Fall Ave	0.20mi	4/2.5	1,456 (+4%)	13mo	$260,000	$179	72
10114 S Summer Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+8%)	6mo	$239,500	$158	68
10277 S Avenida Compadres	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,242 (-12%)	7mo	$265,000	$213	60
10296 S Tornado Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,303 (-7%)	20mo	$239,000	$183	51
10466 S Cyclone Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+12%)	21mo	$249,900	$159	42
10644 E Shale Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,533 (+9%)	11mo	$232,000	$151	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-33,930
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-40,761
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85365

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,883 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,032/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,721

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $191	+0% $128	+5% $64	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-21	-5% $53	+0% $128	+5% $202	+10% $277
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $185	base $128	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10320 S Tornado Ave Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,700	$1.40	15d	1	0.31mi
10417 S Tornado Ave Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,700	$1.40	15d	1	0.39mi
10197 S Monsoon Ave Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,695	$1.41	15d	1	0.39mi
3108 S Ragen Dr Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.0	1529	$1,585	$1.04	15d	1	1.06mi
11271 E 25th Pl Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,800	$1.26	15d	1	1.14mi
2629 S Betsy Ave Yuma, AZ	4.0	2.0	1681	$1,550	$0.92	15d	1	1.15mi
11302 E 25th St Yuma, AZ	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,550	$0.89	15d	1	1.18mi
10155 E 35th St Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,750	$1.20	15d	1	1.21mi
11348 E 25th St Yuma, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,550	$0.91	15d	1	1.24mi
11381 S Kingman Ave Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,650	$1.32	15d	1	1.39mi
9927 E 36th Pl Yuma, AZ	4.0	3.0	1790	$2,000	$1.12	15d	1	1.41mi
10768 S Monterrey Way Yuma, AZ	3.0	2.0	1653	$1,995	$1.21	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $225,000 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $225,000 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-05-19
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,032 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$453/yr (+$38/mo · 43.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,032
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,808
• − Management: −$1,808
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$558
• After-tax cash flow: $2,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yuma Union High School District (4507)
• NCES district ID: 0409630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,512
• Composite: 12.86/100
• National rank: #9592
• State rank: #212 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Fortuna Foothills

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #18663

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fortuna Foothills, AZ
• County: Yuma County · 149,809 people
• City population: 21,356
• Metro: Yuma, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,775
• Household income: $70,331
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 766.0

Population outlook (Yuma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,633 people
• By 2030: 214,114 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 217,856 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 220,276 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 222,359 · +5.1%
• By 2100: 198,880 · -6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 44% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 36% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuma

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.3% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+6.2 2016: R+5.5 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.03%
• Current HPI: 242.8651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.38%
• Metro: Yuma, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $225,000 YAR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,032 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.