Is Plan 1889 Plan in Magnolia, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.1% cap rate and $-280/mo modeled cash flow at a $226,995 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Plan 1889 Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 5.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,040/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D Composite 44.82

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Appreciation +10.0/10.0
Cash flow +8.0/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
1% rule +2.5/10.0
DSCR +2.0/10.0

$226,995

Plan 1889 Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,889 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

Extra storage space
Kitchen island
Gas range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (10.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $204k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.5% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1924 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $203,969 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.75% ✗
Cap rate: 5.06%
Cash-on-cash: -4.39%
DSCR: 0.80
GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $273,721
List price: $226,995
Delta: -17.07%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 Sabino Sky Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,889 (0%)	4mo	$274,995	$146	91
660 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,889 (0%)	4mo	$259,995	$138	71
822 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,944 (+3%)	4mo	$269,852	$139	69
539 Broken Boulder St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,011 (+6%)	12mo	$229,000	$114	64
30102 Dunlevy St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-5%)	8mo	$349,990	$194	61
232 Harlingen Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-13%)	2mo	$259,990	$159	58
131 Amarrillo Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,153 (+14%)	4mo	$369,990	$172	54
214 Amarillo Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,611 (-15%)	1mo	$245,000	$152	53
833 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (-14%)	3mo	$242,995	$149	50
810 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,609 (-15%)	2mo	$220,995	$137	50
692 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (-14%)	10mo	$252,799	$155	39
701 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (-14%)	11mo	$249,995	$153	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 20.4%
Equity multiple: 2.64×
Total profit: $125,899
Equity at exit: $246,590

10-year hold

IRR: 18.1%
Equity multiple: 5.89×
Total profit: $375,128
Equity at exit: $531,780

Cash invested: $76,642 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 38 active · 8 under contract
Months of supply: 16.3 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $310,990 ($166/sqft)
Median days on market: 270 d
This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -12.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

Home prices YoY: 2.4%
Rents YoY: 0.3%
Active inventory: 1924
Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,040 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,435
Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,106/yr
Insurance: −$114
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,394

Max offer price $233,166

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-186	+0% $-280	+5% $-375	+10% $-469
Rent	-10% $-441	-5% $-361	+0% $-280	+5% $-200	+10% $-119
Rate	-1.0pp $-142	-0.5pp $-211	base $-280	+0.5pp $-351	+1.0pp $-423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $68,430
Closing costs: $8,212
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41523 Stampede Strem Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	73d	1	0.12mi
627 Coyote Canyon Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,799	$1.28	7d	1	0.18mi
240 Country Crossing Cir Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1779	$1,766	$0.99	35d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: List price $226,995

Exterior

Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
Home design: Single-family plan (Plan 1889)Active new-construction inventory
Construction: Built 2026 (new construction implied)
Exterior features: Address: 514 Sabino Sky Ct, Magnolia TX 77354

Interior

Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
Interior features: New construction (Plan 1889)Living area approximately 1889

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $226,995 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $226,995 Active 9 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $226,995 Active 8 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $226,995 Active 7 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $226,995 Active 6 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $226,995 Active 3 DOM
2026-07-28

remarks 463-char remark
2026-07-28

days on marketlisting id $226,995 Active 1 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $226,995 Active 731 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $226,995 Active 730 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $226,995 Active 729 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $226,995 Active 728 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $226,995 Active 727 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $226,995 Active 724 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $226,995 Active 723 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $226,995 Active 722 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $226,995 Active 721 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $226,995 Active 720 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $226,995 Active 718 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $226,995 Active 717 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $226,995 Active 716 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $226,995 Active 714 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $226,995 Active 713 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $226,995 Active 712 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $226,995 Active 711 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $226,995 Active 710 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $226,995 Active 709 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $226,995 Active 708 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $226,995 Active 707 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $226,995 Active 706 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $226,995 Active 705 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $226,995 Active 704 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $226,995 Active 703 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $226,995 Active 701 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $226,995 Active 699 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $226,995 Active 698 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $226,995 Active 695 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $226,995 Active 694 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $226,995 Active 693 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $226,995 Active 692 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $226,995 Active 690 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $226,995 Active 686 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $226,995 Active 685 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $226,995 Active 684 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $226,995 Active 681 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $226,995 Active 680 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $226,995 Active 679 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $226,995 Active 678 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $226,995 Active 677 DOM
2026-04-11

price $226,995 471-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $24,476
− Mortgage interest: −$15,333
− Property taxes: −$4,106
− Insurance: −$1,369
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
− Management: −$1,958
− Depreciation: −$7,963
Taxable loss: −$8,210

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,970
After-tax cash flow: $-1,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior enhancements to maximize its resale value.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal ↑
Resale Replace window treatments — Freshens look ↑
Resale Upgrade flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes space ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle Magnolia J H F TX #805/1,662 Nat'l #7,206/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Magnolia ISD
NCES district ID: 4828740
Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $71,692
Composite: 39.46/100
National rank: #3958
State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

Score: 73/100
State rank: #222
US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Magnolia, TX
County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 32,847
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 44,900
Household income: $112,504
Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
Current HPI: 512.87
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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