Plan 1888 Plan · Manvel, TX 77578

$279,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,889 sqft · SingleFamily · 113 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Kitchen island * Walk-in pantry * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Extra storage space * Granite kitchen countertops * Stainless steel appliances * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Close to family friendly parks * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby * Outdoor recreation nearby

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Kitchen island
• Gas range

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• GAS RANGE
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• COMMUTER-FRIENDLY LOCATION

🏗️ New construction. The $279,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $307,745.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.2% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1260 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,089 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,745
• List price: $279,995
• Delta: -9.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Rodeo Bend Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,972 (+4%)	0mo	$289,000	$147	83
12 Montecito Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,879 (-0%)	1mo	$312,999	$167	78
3503 Date Palm Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,878 (-1%)	4mo	$345,725	$184	76
27 Montecito Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,863 (-1%)	3mo	$319,000	$171	75
34 Rodeo Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,056 (+9%)	6mo	$389,900	$190	75
3414 Date Palm Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,878 (-1%)	7mo	$338,745	$180	72
11 Coconut Palms Ct	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,857 (-2%)	1mo	$324,990	$175	64
77 Carmel Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (+11%)	3mo	$349,900	$167	57
105 Montecito Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,147 (+14%)	3mo	$359,900	$168	54
3506 Windmill Palm Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	1,746 (-8%)	5mo	$379,900	$218	48
18 Carmel Chase Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (-10%)	5mo	$295,000	$174	48
4359 Millers Creek Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,134 (+13%)	3mo	$450,000	$211	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-71,551
• Equity at exit: $45,886

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-91,597
• Equity at exit: $26,608

Cash invested: $86,168 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77578

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1260
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,271 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,614
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,616/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,692

Max offer price $259,595

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-226	+0% $-333	+5% $-439	+10% $-545
Rent	-10% $-512	-5% $-422	+0% $-333	+5% $-243	+10% $-153
Rate	-1.0pp $-178	-0.5pp $-254	base $-333	+0.5pp $-412	+1.0pp $-494

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,936
• Closing costs: $9,232
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Old Presidio Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2446	$2,300	$0.94	45d	1	0.33mi
61 Atascadero Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	2.5	2417	$1,500	$0.62	8d	1	0.34mi
121 Rodeo Dr Manvel, TX	3.0	3.0	2015	$2,300	$1.14	45d	1	0.49mi
21 Wheeler Ridge Cir Manvel, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,875	$1.47	6d	1	0.86mi
57 Spring Ln Manvel, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$2,450	$1.31	45d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,995 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,995 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,995 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,995 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,995 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,995 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,995 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,995 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,995 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,995 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,995 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,995 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,995 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,995 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,995 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    price $289,995 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Walk-in pantry * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Extra storage space * Granite kitchen countertops * Stainless steel appliances * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Close to family friendly parks * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby * Outdoor recreation nearby

17. 2026-03-07
    price $299,995 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Walk-in pantry * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Extra storage space * Granite kitchen countertops * Stainless steel appliances * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Close to family friendly parks * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby * Outdoor recreation nearby

18. 2026-03-01
    listed $294,995 Active 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Walk-in pantry * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Extra storage space * Granite kitchen countertops * Stainless steel appliances * Low-E windows * Open floor plan * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Tankless water heater * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near local schools * Close to family friendly parks * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby * Outdoor recreation nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,238
• − Property taxes: −$4,616
• − Insurance: −$1,539
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,180
• − Management: −$2,180
• − Depreciation: −$8,953
• Taxable loss: −$9,455
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,269
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with recent updates, offering a move-in-ready experience. Minor updates to the interior walls and countertops would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or marble — Quartz or marble countertops are more durable and aesthetically pleasing
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or marble — Quartz or marble countertops are more durable and aesthetically pleasing ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices improve convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,210
• Household income: $134,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 93.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Norwegian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
• Current HPI: 218.4264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $289,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $299,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-01 Listed $294,995 Zillow