2800 Birch · Granite City, IL 62040

$108,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1957 $115/sqft · at area comps Est $104k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this completely re-done home! The kitchen features new cabinets, countertops, appliances and all new flooring and freshly painted. The kitchen also has a nice area for a table. Brand-new carpet throughout the rest of the home (beside the bathroom) to keep you nice and cozy. There is laundry hook-up in the hallway with storage above as well as two hall closets for extra storage. The bathroom has been re-done top to bottom with new vanity, toilet, tub/tile surround, flooring and paint. Along with mostly brand-new windows, the siding is all new as well. The listing is agent-owned.

Key facts

• New siding
• New flooring
• New windows

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• NEWLY RENOVATED BATHROOM
• NEW SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $108k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 7.0% in Granite City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#623 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Granite City CUSD 9 (suburban): math 9% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #570 of 620 in IL (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $750 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $108k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.62%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,886
• List price: $108,500
• Delta: 4.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2824 Birch Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0	944 (0%)	0mo	$105,000	$111	97
2829 Dale Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0	944 (0%)	2mo	$129,900	$138	94
2004 Elm Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0	944 (0%)	2mo	$124,900	$132	92
10 Watertown Cir	0.51mi	3/1.0	928 (-2%)	0mo	$109,000	$117	73
2914 Pershing Blvd	0.42mi	3/1.0	912 (-3%)	4mo	$114,900	$126	71
2823 Marshall Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	888 (-6%)	3mo	$49,900	$56	67
2428 Sunbury Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0	864 (-8%)	1mo	$74,900	$87	66
1917 Joy Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	875 (-7%)	1mo	$118,900	$136	63
1904 Joy Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	875 (-7%)	0mo	$79,900	$91	59
3028 Marshall Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	901 (-5%)	4mo	$99,900	$111	58
3156 Davis Ave	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,046 (+11%)	5mo	$99,900	$96	38
3043 Myrtle Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,076 (+14%)	4mo	$27,000	$25	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,201
• Equity at exit: $16,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $13,189
• Equity at exit: $9,381

Cash invested: $30,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62040

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$569
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,015

Max offer price $108,500

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,125
• Closing costs: $3,255
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2415 Jerden Ave Granite City, IL	3.0	1.0	970	$1,400	$1.44	4d	1	1.11mi
303 Wilson Park Ln Granite City, IL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	7d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on marketlisting id $108,500 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   Come see this completely re-done home! The kitchen features new cabinets, countertops, appliances and all new flooring and freshly painted. The kitchen also has a nice area for a table. Brand-new carpet throughout the rest of the home (beside the bathroom) to keep you nice and cozy. There is laundry hook-up in the hallway with storage above as well as two hall closets for extra storage. The bathroom has been re-done top to bottom with new vanity, toilet, tub/tile surround, flooring and paint. Along with mostly brand-new windows, the siding is all new as well. The listing is agent-owned.

3. 2026-05-12
   price $108,500 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   Come see this completely re-done home! The kitchen features new cabinets, countertops, appliances and all new flooring and freshly painted. The kitchen also has a nice area for a table. Brand-new carpet throughout the rest of the home (beside the bathroom) to keep you nice and cozy. There is laundry hook-up in the hallway with storage above as well as two hall closets for extra storage. The bathroom has been re-done top to bottom with new vanity, toilet, tub/tile surround, flooring and paint. Along with mostly brand-new windows, the siding is all new as well. The listing is agent-owned.

4. 2026-05-02
   price $110,500 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   Come see this completely re-done home! The kitchen features new cabinets, countertops, appliances and all new flooring and freshly painted. The kitchen also has a nice area for a table. Brand-new carpet throughout the rest of the home (beside the bathroom) to keep you nice and cozy. There is laundry hook-up in the hallway with storage above as well as two hall closets for extra storage. The bathroom has been re-done top to bottom with new vanity, toilet, tub/tile surround, flooring and paint. Along with mostly brand-new windows, the siding is all new as well. The listing is agent-owned.

5. 2026-03-05
   price $112,500 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   Come see this completely re-done home! The kitchen features new cabinets, countertops, appliances and all new flooring and freshly painted. The kitchen also has a nice area for a table. Brand-new carpet throughout the rest of the home (beside the bathroom) to keep you nice and cozy. There is laundry hook-up in the hallway with storage above as well as two hall closets for extra storage. The bathroom has been re-done top to bottom with new vanity, toilet, tub/tile surround, flooring and paint. Along with mostly brand-new windows, the siding is all new as well. The listing is agent-owned.

6. 2026-02-23
   listed $117,500 Active 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   Come see this completely re-done home! The kitchen features new cabinets, countertops, appliances and all new flooring and freshly painted. The kitchen also has a nice area for a table. Brand-new carpet throughout the rest of the home (beside the bathroom) to keep you nice and cozy. There is laundry hook-up in the hallway with storage above as well as two hall closets for extra storage. The bathroom has been re-done top to bottom with new vanity, toilet, tub/tile surround, flooring and paint. Along with mostly brand-new windows, the siding is all new as well. The listing is agent-owned.

7. 2026-02-04
   price $117,500
8. 2026-01-21
   price $120,000
9. 2026-01-08
   listed $125,000 Active
10. 2025-11-14
    soldstatus Closed
11. 2025-09-29
    status Pending
12. 2025-09-29
    price $30,425
13. 2025-09-02
    listed $1 Active
14. 2025-08-27
    historical $1
15. 2005-06-06
    soldstatus $70,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,248 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,355 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$108/yr (+$9/mo · 4.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,078
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$3,156
• Taxable income: $1,632
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$392
• After-tax cash flow: $2,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granite City CUSD 9
• NCES district ID: 1717280
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,082
• Composite: 9.15/100
• National rank: #9864
• State rank: #570 of 620 in IL

Livability — Granite City

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12751

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granite City, IL
• County: Madison County · 189,064 people
• City population: 40,404
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,404
• Household income: $60,031
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 923.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 258,371 people
• By 2030: 251,523 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 233,640 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 213,042 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 165,255 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 123,953 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 42.5% · R 55.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.4 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.88%
• Current HPI: 204.4612
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+53.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $108,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $110,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $112,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Listed $117,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $117,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $30,425 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Listed $1 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Coming Soon $1 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,248 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.