9889 State Route 267 · LeRaysville, PA 18801

$165,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,132 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1900 5.61 ac lot Est $229k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Farm house on almost 6 acres in Elk Lake School District. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 1 full bath, large front porch, and an oversized barn/ garage for storage this home is ready for your remodel and personal touches,

Key facts

• Oversized barn
• Large front porch
• 6 acres

Tags

• 6 ACRES
• ELK LAKE SCHOOL DISTRICT
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• OVERSIZED BARN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 4 spaces
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected (200 amps or less)
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1900
• Construction: Asbestos siding/materials; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (one is 9 x 12; two are 11 x 11; one is 11 x 9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No cooling system
• Interior features: Attic with walk-up access; Unfinished basement; Mud room
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Elk Lake SD (rural): math 30% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #345 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Susquehanna County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Susquehanna County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,664
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1271 Suber Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,014 (-10%)	5mo	$205,000	$202	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $35,793
• Equity at exit: $75,427

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $105,329
• Equity at exit: $117,213

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18801

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,952/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,388

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $165,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   remarks 211-char remark
3. 2026-06-09
   listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,952 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,279 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$328/yr (+$27/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,952
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $130
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$31
• After-tax cash flow: $2,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Lake SD
• NCES district ID: 4209150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,260
• Composite: 34.85/100
• National rank: #5093
• State rank: #345 of 539 in PA

Livability — LeRaysville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 708
• Population (ZIP): 7,838

Population outlook (Susquehanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,552 people
• By 2030: 35,270 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 30,663 · -18.3%
• By 2050: 26,492 · -29.5%
• By 2075: 19,658 · -47.7%
• By 2100: 15,179 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Susquehanna

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.2% · R 71.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Current HPI: 133.3042
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $165,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,952 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.