30687 Sleepy Holw · Shingletown, CA 96088

$189,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1977 0.43 ac lot Est $325k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Plan your escape to this cozy cabin in the woods, ready for you to make it your own! Through the front door you'll find an open great room with kitchen, spacious walk-in pantry, countertop island, living area, and fireplace. To the left are the two bedrooms and bathrooms, and to the right is a large bonus room with yard access. Relax and enjoy the crisp mountain air on either of the home's decks, perfect for hosting barbecues and outdoor gatherings. Just a short drive from shopping in Redding, this Shasta Forest Village property sits within 20 miles of Lake McCumber, Manzanita Lake, Lassen National Park, and miles of scenic hikes waiting to be explored. Please ensure that you are Covid-19 compliant, and that you have checked the latest visiting requirements.

Key facts

• Water heater
• Septic tank pumped
• Converted garage

Tags

• RADIANT HEATING SYSTEM
• WATER HEATER
• SEPTIC TANK PUMPED
• CONVERTED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No accessory dwelling unit; No shared/common walls; Parcel number 094300010000

Exterior

• Utilities: Public/district water; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: House; Single-story; Entry on main level; Urban setting
• Construction: Built (year source: Assessor)
• Exterior features: No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; All bedrooms on the main level; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.7% in Shingletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#663 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, health & safety B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.31%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $324,576
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30621 Sleepy Hollow Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,700 (-4%)	6mo	$335,000	$197	87
30544 Sleepy Hollow Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (-8%)	6mo	$404,600	$249	72
30909 Tinkerbell Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,740 (-1%)	7mo	$302,450	$174	67
7354 Shasta Forest Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+1%)	8mo	$375,000	$211	67
30691 Thumper Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,588 (-10%)	6mo	$299,000	$188	66
30821 Bambi Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (-6%)	6mo	$312,000	$188	56
30839 Tinkerbell Ln	0.28mi	2/1.5	1,525 (-14%)	10mo	$230,000	$151	54
30925 Thumper Dr	0.63mi	2/2.5	1,906 (+8%)	5mo	$331,000	$174	51
7271 Clarabelle Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (-9%)	13mo	$290,000	$180	49
7109 Dogwood Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (-6%)	18mo	$306,000	$184	42
30882 Snowbird Ln	0.62mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,586 (-10%)	5mo	$269,900	$170	41
30588 Shingletown Ridge Rd	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,500 (-15%)	4mo	$135,000	$90	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,791
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $5,531
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96088

• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,894 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,229/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $343	-5% $289	+0% $235	+5% $182	+10% $128
Rent	-10% $86	-5% $160	+0% $235	+5% $310	+10% $385
Rate	-1.0pp $331	-0.5pp $284	base $235	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-03-16
    price $189,900
18. 2026-03-05
    listed $199,900 Active
19. 2020-11-19
    soldstatus $190,000 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Plan your escape to this cozy cabin in the woods, ready for you to make it your own! Through the front door you'll find an open great room with kitchen, spacious walk-in pantry, countertop island, living area, and fireplace. To the left are the two bedrooms and bathrooms, and to the right is a large bonus room with yard access. Relax and enjoy the crisp mountain air on either of the home's decks, perfect for hosting barbecues and outdoor gatherings. Just a short drive from shopping in Redding, this Shasta Forest Village property sits within 20 miles of Lake McCumber, Manzanita Lake, Lassen National Park, and miles of scenic hikes waiting to be explored. Please ensure that you are Covid-19 compliant, and that you have checked the latest visiting requirements.

20. 2020-11-19
    soldstatus $190,000 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Plan your escape to this cozy cabin in the woods, ready for you to make it your own! Through the front door you'll find an open great room with kitchen, spacious walk-in pantry, countertop island, living area, and fireplace. To the left are the two bedrooms and bathrooms, and to the right is a large bonus room with yard access. Relax and enjoy the crisp mountain air on either of the home's decks, perfect for hosting barbecues and outdoor gatherings. Just a short drive from shopping in Redding, this Shasta Forest Village property sits within 20 miles of Lake McCumber, Manzanita Lake, Lassen National Park, and miles of scenic hikes waiting to be explored. Please ensure that you are Covid-19 compliant, and that you have checked the latest visiting requirements.

21. 2020-11-19
    soldstatus $190,000

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Plan your escape to this cozy cabin in the woods, ready for you to make it your own! Through the front door you'll find an open great room with kitchen, spacious walk-in pantry, countertop island, living area, and fireplace. To the left are the two bedrooms and bathrooms, and to the right is a large bonus room with yard access. Relax and enjoy the crisp mountain air on either of the home's decks, perfect for hosting barbecues and outdoor gatherings. Just a short drive from shopping in Redding, this Shasta Forest Village property sits within 20 miles of Lake McCumber, Manzanita Lake, Lassen National Park, and miles of scenic hikes waiting to be explored. Please ensure that you are Covid-19 compliant, and that you have checked the latest visiting requirements.

22. 2020-09-18
    listed $188,000 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Plan your escape to this cozy cabin in the woods, ready for you to make it your own! Through the front door you'll find an open great room with kitchen, spacious walk-in pantry, countertop island, living area, and fireplace. To the left are the two bedrooms and bathrooms, and to the right is a large bonus room with yard access. Relax and enjoy the crisp mountain air on either of the home's decks, perfect for hosting barbecues and outdoor gatherings. Just a short drive from shopping in Redding, this Shasta Forest Village property sits within 20 miles of Lake McCumber, Manzanita Lake, Lassen National Park, and miles of scenic hikes waiting to be explored. Please ensure that you are Covid-19 compliant, and that you have checked the latest visiting requirements.

23. 2020-09-18
    listed $188,000 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Plan your escape to this cozy cabin in the woods, ready for you to make it your own! Through the front door you'll find an open great room with kitchen, spacious walk-in pantry, countertop island, living area, and fireplace. To the left are the two bedrooms and bathrooms, and to the right is a large bonus room with yard access. Relax and enjoy the crisp mountain air on either of the home's decks, perfect for hosting barbecues and outdoor gatherings. Just a short drive from shopping in Redding, this Shasta Forest Village property sits within 20 miles of Lake McCumber, Manzanita Lake, Lassen National Park, and miles of scenic hikes waiting to be explored. Please ensure that you are Covid-19 compliant, and that you have checked the latest visiting requirements.

24. 2001-06-29
    soldstatus $110,000
25. 1999-06-04
    soldstatus $82,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,229 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,229 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,229
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$252
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$61
• After-tax cash flow: $2,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Shingletown

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #20514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shingletown, CA
• City population: 4,552
• Population (ZIP): 4,552

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.35%
• Current HPI: 141.2725
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+131.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $189,900 CRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $199,900 CRMLS
• 2020-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-19 Sold (MLS) $190,000 TCAOR
• 2020-11-19 Sold (MLS) $190,000 SAOR
• 2020-09-18 Listed $188,000 TCAOR
• 2020-09-18 Listed $188,000 SAOR
• 2001-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,229 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.