2651 Grandbury Grove Rd · Lakeland, FL 33811

$385,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 174 Days on market

Built 2020 5,885 sqft lot $117/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller is offering up to $5,000 toward buyer’s closing cost. Beautiful two-story home located in Lakeland, FL, featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and a versatile bonus room perfect for a home office. Situated in the highly desirable Lakes of Laurel Highlands community, this spacious residence is ideal for growing families or anyone needing extra space for guests or remote work. This home offers an open-concept layout filled with abundant natural light and generous living areas designed for both comfort and entertaining. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living space, creating the perfect setting for gatherings and everyday living. The primary suite features a private bat

Key facts

• Lake view
• Open concept design
• Two story home

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• DEDICATED OFFICE SPACE
• LAKE VIEW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated
• Financial info: Total annual fees reported; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: HOA required (Association: SHERLEY AUBREY); Monthly HOA approximately $117; Quarterly association fee listed; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, playground and park; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage (2 spaces); Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two-story home; East-facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built on 0.14 acre lot
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Lake view; Lake access; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No interior features listed; Bonus room; Total of 10 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-292 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jesse Keen Elementary School (math 20% / reading 21%, grade F, #2,094 of 2,144 statewide, top 98%, 649 students, 67% FRL); Sleepy Hill Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,090 students, 66% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 363 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $292,124 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.25%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-89,519
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-134,933
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,921 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,637/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$117
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,290

Max offer price $333,470

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-183	+0% $-292	+5% $-401	+10% $-510
Rent	-10% $-522	-5% $-407	+0% $-292	+5% $-176	+10% $-61
Rate	-1.0pp $-98	-0.5pp $-194	base $-292	+0.5pp $-391	+1.0pp $-493

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3227 Bayou Bay Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,600	$1.39	5d	1	0.16mi
2796 Grandbury Grove Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$3,295	$1.76	13d	1	0.19mi
2127 Blue Highlands Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,275	$1.22	25d	1	0.41mi
3370 Cup Dr Unit 16 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$2,975	$1.62	5d	1	1.40mi
3442 Cup Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,975	$1.63	5d	1	1.42mi
3460 Cup Dr Unit 01 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$2,864	$1.56	12d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $117 · $1,404/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $385,000 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $385,000 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $387,000 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $387,000 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $387,000 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $387,000 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $387,000 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $387,000 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $387,000 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    price $387,000
16. 2026-03-19
    price $395,000
17. 2026-02-24
    price $397,000
18. 2026-02-16
    price $399,000
19. 2025-12-29
    listed $399,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,637 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,637 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$3,637
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,804
• − Management: −$2,804
• − HOA: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$10,286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,469
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 477.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $387,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $395,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $397,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Listed $399,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+113.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,637 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.