51 N Clay St · Coldwater, MI 49036

$1

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,523 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1850 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bed, 2 bath home in downtown Coldwater on a nice corner lot. Move in ready, with 18x20 garage. This property is selling Tuesday, June 30th at 6:00pm. This property may be purchased with or without the representation of a licensed real estate agent or broker. This company makes no warranty about the contents of this data. It is the responsibility of the parties to look at the property to satisfy themselves as to the accuracy of this information. Taxes were obtained from the local assessor and taxes could change for the buyer after a closed transaction. No absentee bids. Statements made auction day take precedence over all printed and previously dispersed information.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1850

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Colonial-style single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1850; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Partial basement
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating
• Interior features: Fireplace; Storm, screen, and replacement windows; 12 total rooms; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Natural gas water heater

🔨 Auction listing. The $1 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $229,593 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-412 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1).
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.3% in Coldwater — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#270 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Coldwater Community Schools (town): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #344 of 540 in MI (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Branch County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Branch County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 344389.5% of price; built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,593
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
79 N Monroe St	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,290 (-9%)	6mo	$235,000	$103	67
40 E Pierce St	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,454 (-3%)	11mo	$199,000	$81	64
40 Williams St	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,270 (-10%)	15mo	$220,000	$97	59
30 E Pierce St	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,332 (-8%)	11mo	$189,050	$81	58
221 Morse St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,344 (-7%)	8mo	$115,000	$49	50
36 E Alden St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,200 (-13%)	2mo	$200,000	$91	48
78 Grand St	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,882 (+14%)	21mo	$280,000	$97	45
95 N Fremont St	0.31mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,766 (+10%)	19mo	$195,000	$70	44
279 Marshall St	0.49mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,200 (-13%)	4mo	$220,000	$100	44
150 Grand St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,200 (-13%)	23mo	$190,000	$86	39
12 Bishop Ave	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,158 (-14%)	5mo	$275,000	$127	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-63,422
• Equity at exit: $34,233

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-88,925
• Equity at exit: $19,851

Cash invested: $64,286 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49036

• Active inventory: 140

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,444/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,008

Max offer price $169,975

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-253	-5% $-333	+0% $-412	+5% $-491	+10% $-571
Rent	-10% $-529	-5% $-471	+0% $-412	+5% $-353	+10% $-295
Rate	-1.0pp $-296	-0.5pp $-354	base $-412	+0.5pp $-472	+1.0pp $-532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,398
• Closing costs: $6,888
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 676-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $1 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,861
• − Property taxes: −$3,444
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,427
• − Management: −$1,427
• − Depreciation: −$6,679
• Taxable loss: −$9,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,194
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldwater Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2610140
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,373
• Composite: 26.87/100
• National rank: #7101
• State rank: #344 of 540 in MI

Livability — Coldwater

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #6664

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coldwater, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,697

Population outlook (Branch County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,079 people
• By 2030: 39,622 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 36,584 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 33,462 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 26,612 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 18,580 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Arabic 7% Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Branch

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.0% · R 70.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+38.1 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -214.60%
• Current HPI: 192.653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Property tax history

-42.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $705 · -67.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.