1415 Elizabeth St · Midland, MI 48640

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,122 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1932 Est $164k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Contractor special with incredible potential! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is located in a highly desirable downtown neighborhood, just a short walk to Dow Gardens. The current owner has fully gutted the interior and completed the exterior shell, giving you a blank canvas to bring your vision to life. The exterior features all new windows and siding. Inside, the home offers an open main floor layout with two spacious living areas and double doors leading to the back patio and a generous backyard. The unfinished basement provides additional opportunity for expansion or storage. The interior is ready for finishing touches, including flooring, paint, drywall repair, and complete kitchen and bat

Key facts

• All new windows
• Unfinished basement
• All new siding

Tags

• ALL NEW WINDOWS
• ALL NEW SIDING
• OPEN MAIN FLOOR LAYOUT
• TWO SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.4% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in MI, #578 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Midland Public Schools (urban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #62 of 540 in MI (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 320 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (204 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $85k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.05%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,812
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
924 W Allen St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,068 (-5%)	5mo	$150,000	$140	69
1711 Adelaide St	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,016 (-9%)	6mo	$196,000	$193	69
1510 W Hines St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,067 (-5%)	7mo	$126,050	$118	65
208 W Hines St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,198 (+7%)	14mo	$175,000	$146	56
1201 W Carpenter St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (-5%)	21mo	$122,555	$115	53
1114 Suncrist St	0.19mi	3/1.0	972 (-13%)	15mo	$130,000	$134	52
1008 W Collins St	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,248 (+11%)	23mo	$186,000	$149	48
1605 W Hines St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	954 (-15%)	5mo	$140,000	$147	48
2515 Manor Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,034 (-8%)	8mo	$185,000	$179	47
122 E Collins St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,245 (+11%)	4mo	$154,500	$124	44
320 W Nickels St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,244 (+11%)	6mo	$250,000	$201	41
610 Gordon Street St	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,231 (+10%)	22mo	$143,000	$116	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $12,224
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $50,415
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48640

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,594 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,490/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $981

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-02-19
   soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,490 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,630 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 9.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,490
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,531
• − Management: −$1,531
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $4,218
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,012
• After-tax cash flow: $4,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2623820
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,844
• Composite: 48.67/100
• National rank: #2105
• State rank: #62 of 540 in MI

Livability — Midland

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #578

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, MI
• County: Midland County · 66,531 people
• City population: 66,531
• Metro: Midland, MI
• Population (ZIP): 32,492
• Household income: $80,574
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,968 people
• By 2030: 83,368 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 80,713 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 76,698 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 67,617 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 57,529 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: R (+15.2) · D 41.6% · R 56.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.2 2020: R+14.6 2016: R+19.4 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.88%
• Current HPI: 230.5702
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Midland, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,490 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.