252 Pear Ln · Santa Rosa, CA 95407

$60,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 743 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 1970 Est $113k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 252 Pear Lane - A Hidden Gem in the Heart of Santa Rosa Tucked away on a quiet, tree-lined street, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, charm, and convenience. This inviting Santa Rosa residence features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, thoughtfully designed with light-filled living spaces and a flowing floor plan ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Step into the spacious living room with large windows, then make your way to the open-concept kitchenperfectly positioned for hosting friends or enjoying a quiet night in. Outside, you'll find a beautifully maintained yard with room to garden, entertain, or simply unwind under the Sonoma County sun. Located min

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1970

Tags

• LIGHT FILLED LIVING SPACES
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED YARD
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD FEEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.1% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.81%
• DSCR: 5.57
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,936
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
252 Pear Ln	0.00mi	2/1.0	743 (0%)	1mo	$35,000	$47	100
2963 Santa Rosa Ave Unit C-12	0.31mi	2/1.0	750 (+1%)	0mo	$117,000	$156	84
280 Aileen Way	0.12mi	2/1.0	720 (-3%)	10mo	$102,000	$142	81
255 Apple Ln	0.05mi	2/1.0	784 (+6%)	12mo	$70,000	$89	78
127 Coachman Ln #13	0.59mi	2/2.0	720 (-3%)	12mo	$150,000	$208	54
115 Coachman Ln #19	0.54mi	2/1.0	672 (-10%)	8mo	$120,000	$179	52
29 Wayside Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0	784 (+6%)	12mo	$119,000	$152	51
319 Apple Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	850 (+14%)	17mo	$111,000	$131	50
131 El Crystal Dr	0.69mi	2/1.0	640 (-14%)	13mo	$122,500	$191	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $81,820
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.24×
• Total profit: $188,757
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95407

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,347 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $1,439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $525

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
240 Burt St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$2,563	$3.45	13d	10	0.20mi
1018 Bellevue Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,874	$1.86	13d	1	0.39mi
1020 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,860	$3.21	13d	27	0.71mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2134-211 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$2,075	$2.88	13d	1	0.73mi
2146 Bedford St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,900	$2.64	13d	1	0.76mi
2111 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,892	$3.09	13d	8	0.80mi
147 Colgan Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	623	$1,941	$3.12	13d	3	1.06mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1591 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$2,500	$3.35	13d	1	1.10mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1555 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$1,995	$2.67	13d	1	1.10mi
2025 Applejack Way Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,750	$3.50	13d	1	1.26mi
777 Aston Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	635	$1,749	$2.75	13d	1	1.26mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
• − Management: −$2,253
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $17,350
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,164
• After-tax cash flow: $13,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,036
• Household income: $82,863
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1943.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -852.74%
• Current HPI: 256.4307
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B