14019 W County Rd 178 · Odessa, TX 79766

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 59 Days on market

Built 2019 Fair condition 1.00 ac lot $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for space for your family to spread out? Situated on a full acre, this 3 Bedroom, 2 bath mobile home offers both comfort and room to grow. Inside, you'll find open concept living room/kitchen with generously sized bedrooms, including a private, sequestered master suite. Step outside to enjoy a spacious backyard with plenty of potential—whether for entertaining, gardening, or simply simply relaxing. Storage building will stay. Horses and chickens are permitted. DOGS ON PREMISES

Key facts

• Private master suite
• Spacious backyard
• Storage building

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• PRIVATE MASTER SUITE
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• STORAGE BUILDING
• HORSES PERMITTED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.05%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $67,641
• Equity at exit: $126,260

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $190,576
• Equity at exit: $216,885

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79766

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,342 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,006

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $343	+0% $265	+5% $188	+10% $110
Rent	-10% $80	-5% $173	+0% $265	+5% $358	+10% $450
Rate	-1.0pp $379	-0.5pp $323	base $265	+0.5pp $207	+1.0pp $148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $225,000 Active 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Looking for space for your family to spread out? Situated on a full acre, this 3 Bedroom, 2 bath mobile home offers both comfort and room to grow. Inside, you'll find open concept living room/kitchen with generously sized bedrooms, including a private, sequestered master suite. Step outside to enjoy a spacious backyard with plenty of potential—whether for entertaining, gardening, or simply simply relaxing. Storage building will stay. Horses and chickens are permitted. DOGS ON PREMISES

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,248
• − Management: −$2,248
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$96
• After-tax cash flow: $3,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The mobile home requires significant repairs, particularly to the roof and exterior, and has moderate potential for value increase through landscaping and exterior improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The satellite image shows significant damage
• Moderate exterior siding — The listing photo shows some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Improves curb appeal and resale value
• Both Roof repair — Essential for structural integrity and safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The satellite image shows significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The listing photo shows some wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$18,000–65,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Improves curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Roof repair — Essential for structural integrity and safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 131,169
• Population (ZIP): 10,712

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% White 25% Two or more races 24% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.91%
• Current HPI: 222.3497
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $225,000 ODMLS