311 Humphrey Rd · Nacogdoches, TX 75961

$45,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1960 0.25 ac lot Est $60k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special! Opportunity awaits with this 2-bedroom, 2-bath fixer-upper featuring an additional bonus room that could serve as an office, hobby room, or extra living space. Situated on a large fenced lot, the property offers plenty of outdoor space along with covered front and side porches and a storage building in the backyard. Whether you're looking for a rental property, flip project, or investment opportunity, this home has great potential. Property is part of an estate and is being sold AS IS. Cash or conventional financing only; home will not qualify for FHA or VA financing.

Key facts

• Storage building
• Bonus room
• Large fenced lot

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• LARGE FENCED LOT
• COVERED FRONT AND SIDE PORCHES
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shed(s) on the property

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central heating or cooling listed
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($880 rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 2.3% in Nacogdoches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#252 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, commute F.
• Nacogdoches ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #688 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 35 units permitted in Nacogdoches County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.67%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,368
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1801 Railroad St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,328 (+8%)	12mo	$65,000	$49	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $11,945
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $35,349
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75961

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $880 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,669/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $499

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
528 Tangleberry St Nacogdoches, TX	2.0	3.0	1200	$950	$0.79	43d	1	0.63mi
3413 E Main St Nacogdoches, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$887	$0.93	43d	9	0.70mi
420 Wedgewood St Nacogdoches, TX	2.0	1.5	800	$850	$1.06	43d	1	0.74mi
2433 Woden Rd Unit 3 Nacogdoches, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$725	$0.97	43d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $45,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   remarks 592-char remark
4. 2026-06-14
   listed $45,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,669 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,669 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,669
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$844
• − Management: −$844
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $3,142
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$754
• After-tax cash flow: $2,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nacogdoches ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832090
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,759
• Composite: 22.98/100
• National rank: #7983
• State rank: #688 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nacogdoches

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #5962

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nacogdoches, TX
• County: Nacogdoches County · 53,896 people
• City population: 53,896
• Metro: Nacogdoches, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,183
• Household income: $41,495
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1295.0

Population outlook (Nacogdoches County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,553 people
• By 2030: 66,920 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 66,833 · +0.4%
• By 2050: 66,462 · -0.1%
• By 2075: 65,710 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 62,321 · -6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Nacogdoches

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.2% · R 69.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+31.3 2016: R+35.4 2012: R+36.2 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.75%
• Current HPI: 163.4176
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nacogdoches, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $45,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,669 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.