930 Cedar Ln · East Marion, NY 11939

$999,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,712 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 1988 0.66 ac lot Est $1085k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Overlooking acres of Lavender fields, this sleek, Scandinavian post-modern ranch home is a study in minimalist warmth, highlighted by striking beamed cedar ceilings and an inviting, wood-burning fireplace. The bright, open layout in the living area allows access from 4 sets of sliding doors to both a deck with lavender views, and also a sheltered patio for those windier North Fork fall days. The recently renovated kitchen, open to the living-dining area, is designed keeping both style and function in mind. There are two large bedrooms: an en-suite primary with a recently renovated bath, and a second bedroom big enough to convert to 2! There is also an additional recently renovated full bath

Key facts

• 0.66 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual road maintenance fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; No carport
• Security: Building security
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Cesspool septic; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Actual property condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Full basement; Attic access via scuttle
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Building security

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Exhaust fan; Open kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 rooms total (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ducted heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Beamed ceilings; Natural woodwork; Open floor plan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $999k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($55k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $999k).
• Recommended offer: $984k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,051 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oysterponds Elementary School (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 80 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Oysterponds Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $280k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($984k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $984,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.64%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,085,408
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
600 Shipyard Ln	0.26mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,800 (+5%)	9mo	$1,100,000	$611	65
75 Gull Pond Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (-3%)	10mo	$1,050,000	$634	48
240 Knoll Cir	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,476 (-14%)	19mo	$1,300,000	$881	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $436,600
• Equity at exit: $475,859

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.99×
• Total profit: $1,114,981
• Equity at exit: $754,797

Cash invested: $279,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11939

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,454 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,239
• Tax from tax record: −$396 /mo · $4,757/yr
• Insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,825
• Net cashflow: $4,577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,660

Max offer price $999,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $249,750
• Closing costs: $29,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Marion Pl East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$19,000	$10.86	24d	1	0.39mi
460 Bay Ave East Marion, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$8,000	$5.33	43d	1	0.41mi
580 South Ln East Marion, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$20,000	$10.00	19d	1	0.46mi
1850 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	1140	$10,000	$8.77	43d	1	0.52mi
870 Stars Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	3.0	1500	$10,000	$6.67	43d	1	0.65mi
3045 Rocky Point Rd East Marion, NY	3.0	2.0	2025	$12,000	$5.93	43d	1	0.74mi
123 Sterling Ave #2 Greenport, NY	3.0	3.0	1528	$45,000	$29.45	43d	1	1.30mi
123 Sterling Ave #1 Greenport, NY	1.0	1.5	1521	$8,000	$5.26	17d	1	1.30mi
744 Main St Unit 2 Greenport, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,400	$2.83	43d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $999,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $999,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $999,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $999,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $999,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $999,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $999,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $999,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $999,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $999,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $999,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $999,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $999,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $999,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $999,000 Active
16. 2026-05-16
    historical $999,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,757 · $396/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,820 · $902/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,063/yr (+$505/mo · 127.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $161,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,960
• − Property taxes: −$4,757
• − Insurance: −$4,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,916
• − Management: −$12,916
• − Depreciation: −$29,062
• Taxable income: $40,841
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,802
• After-tax cash flow: $45,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Marion

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1051
• US rank: #20822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Marion, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,741

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scottish 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Current HPI: 281.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Coming Soon $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,757 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.