18320 Rock Sage Cv · Elgin, TX 78621

$249,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,561 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 2014 8,886 sqft lot $160/sqft · 16% below area Est $297k · 16% under $157/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 4-bedroom home on a quiet cul-de-sac lot with a spacious yard. Thoughtful split floor plan with updates throughout, including fresh paint and new LVP flooring—no carpet anywhere. Open-concept living and dining with great natural light and a functional layout. Enjoy the peace and privacy of a cul-de-sac while staying close to shopping, dining, and major highways. Just 25 miles to Downtown Austin with easy access to 290, 183, 130, and 45. Move-in ready with room to make it your own!

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Spacious yard
• Fresh paint

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• SPACIOUS YARD
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-404 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (28.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 12406% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,673 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.92%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,072
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: -15.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13605 Barn Chime St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (+3%)	2mo	$289,990	$180	83
13609 Barn Chime St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (+6%)	4mo	$299,990	$182	77
13500 Barn Chime St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (+6%)	3mo	$274,990	$167	76
18309 Rock Sage Cv	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,766 (+13%)	2mo	$279,900	$158	75
13420 Barn Chime St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (+6%)	3mo	$284,990	$173	75
13512 Muny Pkwy	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (+6%)	3mo	$289,990	$176	74
25609 Flora Bella Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (-6%)	4mo	$279,990	$190	56
25641 Flora Bella Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+8%)	2mo	$299,999	$179	53
13701 Scarlett Song Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,721 (+10%)	1mo	$299,999	$174	51
13732 Scarlett Song Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,665 (+7%)	6mo	$324,990	$195	50
25632 Wheat Seed Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+8%)	0mo	$299,999	$179	48
13817 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (+11%)	3mo	$326,700	$189	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $110,984
• Equity at exit: $225,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $348,146
• Equity at exit: $485,693

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,184 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$557 /mo · $6,679/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$157
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,695

Max offer price $178,673

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	4d	1	0.18mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	20d	1	0.21mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	24d	1	0.55mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	0.55mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	0.70mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	18d	1	0.73mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	0.73mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	0.79mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	15d	1	0.80mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	2d	1	0.82mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	0.92mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	44d	1	0.92mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	44d	1	0.94mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	16d	1	0.95mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	24d	1	0.95mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	44d	1	1.06mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	2d	6	1.12mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	18d	1	1.15mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	24d	1	1.15mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	1.15mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	18d	1	1.18mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	2d	1	1.21mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	44d	1	1.23mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	44d	1	1.25mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	24d	1	1.25mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	1.27mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	1.29mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	44d	1	1.31mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	24d	1	1.33mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	44d	1	1.36mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	24d	1	1.36mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	2d	1	1.43mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	11d	1	1.46mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	1.47mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	20d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $157 · $1,884/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,999 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,999 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,999 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,999 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,999 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,999 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,999 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,999 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    historical $1,799
15. 2026-03-18
    price $1,799
16. 2026-03-07
    listed $1,999
17. 2026-03-06
    status Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Well-maintained 4-bedroom home on a quiet cul-de-sac lot with a spacious yard. Thoughtful split floor plan with updates throughout, including fresh paint and new LVP flooring—no carpet anywhere. Open-concept living and dining with great natural light and a functional layout. Enjoy the peace and privacy of a cul-de-sac while staying close to shopping, dining, and major highways. Just 25 miles to Downtown Austin with easy access to 290, 183, 130, and 45. Move-in ready with room to make it your own!

18. 2026-02-24
    historical $1,999

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Well-maintained 4-bedroom home on a quiet cul-de-sac lot with a spacious yard. Thoughtful split floor plan with updates throughout, including fresh paint and new LVP flooring—no carpet anywhere. Open-concept living and dining with great natural light and a functional layout. Enjoy the peace and privacy of a cul-de-sac while staying close to shopping, dining, and major highways. Just 25 miles to Downtown Austin with easy access to 290, 183, 130, and 45. Move-in ready with room to make it your own!

19. 2026-02-24
    historical Active Under Contract 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Well-maintained 4-bedroom home on a quiet cul-de-sac lot with a spacious yard. Thoughtful split floor plan with updates throughout, including fresh paint and new LVP flooring—no carpet anywhere. Open-concept living and dining with great natural light and a functional layout. Enjoy the peace and privacy of a cul-de-sac while staying close to shopping, dining, and major highways. Just 25 miles to Downtown Austin with easy access to 290, 183, 130, and 45. Move-in ready with room to make it your own!

20. 2026-02-15
    listed $1,999
21. 2026-02-03
    price $249,999 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Well-maintained 4-bedroom home on a quiet cul-de-sac lot with a spacious yard. Thoughtful split floor plan with updates throughout, including fresh paint and new LVP flooring—no carpet anywhere. Open-concept living and dining with great natural light and a functional layout. Enjoy the peace and privacy of a cul-de-sac while staying close to shopping, dining, and major highways. Just 25 miles to Downtown Austin with easy access to 290, 183, 130, and 45. Move-in ready with room to make it your own!

22. 2026-02-02
    listed $254,500 Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Well-maintained 4-bedroom home on a quiet cul-de-sac lot with a spacious yard. Thoughtful split floor plan with updates throughout, including fresh paint and new LVP flooring—no carpet anywhere. Open-concept living and dining with great natural light and a functional layout. Enjoy the peace and privacy of a cul-de-sac while staying close to shopping, dining, and major highways. Just 25 miles to Downtown Austin with easy access to 290, 183, 130, and 45. Move-in ready with room to make it your own!

23. 2026-01-10
    price
24. 2025-09-24
    price
25. 2025-06-26
    price
26. 2025-05-14
    price
27. 2025-04-13
    listed Active
28. 2019-07-16
    historical Withdrawn
29. 2019-06-03
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,679 · $557/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,679 · $557/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,679
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − HOA: −$1,884
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$9,079
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,179
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Rental Removed $1,799 ACTRIS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $1,799 ACTRIS
• 2026-03-07 Listed for Rent $1,999 ACTRIS
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-24 Rental Removed $1,999 ACTRIS
• 2026-02-24 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed for Rent $1,999 ACTRIS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $249,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $254,500 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-13 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2019-07-16 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2019-06-03 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+27.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,679 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.