618 Montgomery St · Ogdensburg, NY 13669

$99,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,437 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 242 Days on market

Built 1853 7,405 sqft lot Est $75k · 34% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1853

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($567/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.3% in Ogdensburg — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Ogdensburg City School District (town): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John F Kennedy School (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,632 of 2,108 statewide, top 78%, 462 students, 55% FRL); Ogdensburg Free Academy (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,030 of 1,100 statewide, top 94%, 714 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $100k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price; built in 1853 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1853 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.02%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,724
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
616 Elizabeth St	0.05mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,492 (+4%)	5mo	$78,000	$52	83
624 Morris St	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-10%)	6mo	$42,000	$32	77
906 Franklin St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,328 (-8%)	4mo	$47,000	$35	72
931 Elizabeth St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,550 (+8%)	6mo	$88,000	$57	67
123 Franklin St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-4%)	4mo	$119,000	$86	66
924 Caroline St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+10%)	6mo	$86,500	$55	62
1013 Lafayette St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,272 (-12%)	7mo	$170,000	$134	59
310 Seymour St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,320 (-8%)	2mo	$22,000	$17	56
1114 Pickering St	0.52mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,550 (+8%)	6mo	$17,000	$11	50
130 Paterson St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,230 (-14%)	4mo	$15,500	$13	48
316 Rosseel St	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,253 (-13%)	4mo	$115,000	$92	38
2 Grove St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,226 (-15%)	4mo	$57,500	$47	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $5,349
• Equity at exit: $34,488

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $28,289
• Equity at exit: $46,104

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13669

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,895/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,127

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $76	+0% $47	+5% $19	+10% $-9
Rent	-10% $-47	-5% $0	+0% $47	+5% $94	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $73	base $47	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-18
   price $99,999
4. 2025-09-25
   price $104,900
5. 2025-08-24
   listed $109,900 Active
6. 2012-05-31
   soldstatus $51,000
7. 2012-05-31
   soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,895 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,895 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$3,895
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,140
• − Management: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$225
• After-tax cash flow: $792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogdensburg City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621660
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,253
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5497
• State rank: #531 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ogdensburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogdensburg, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,615

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Polish 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.07%
• Current HPI: 264.0261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+96.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-27 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $99,999 CNYIS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $104,900 CNYIS
• 2025-08-24 Listed $109,900 CNYIS
• 2012-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2012-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,895 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.