1521 N 40th Dr · Show Low, AZ 85901

$600,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,719 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1999 0.29 ac lot Est $710k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the desirable Country Club Manor community, this spacious 4-bedroom + den, 3-bath home offers approximately 2,780 sq ft of comfortable mountain living with no HOA! This well-maintained home features a versatile floorplan with a large loft, oversized 2-car garage, and newer luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The inviting living area is highlighted by a cozy gas fireplace, while the kitchen features a gas stove and plenty of space for entertaining. All of the bathrooms and the kitchen have been beautifully remodeled and have quartz countertops. Step outside to Trex-deck front to sit on the porch swing, or the back porch overlooking the fenced backyard complete with a basketbal

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Large loft
• Trex-deck front

Tags

• LARGE LOFT
• GAS FIREPLACE
• GAS STOVE
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• TREX-DECK FRONT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 12,512 sq. ft. (assessor)
• Financial info: Non-assumable financing
• HOA & community: Association fee covers other items (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage; RV access/parking with RV gate; Garage door opener; Extended length garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof; Building area per assessor
• Exterior features: Private yard; Sport court(s); Storage; Shed(s); Chain link and wood fencing; Grass front yard; Grass backyard; East/West exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Up to 6 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanity; Upstairs living area; Eat-in kitchen; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Pantry; Master bedroom with a 3/4 bath; Dual-pane windows; Family room gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $600k).
• Recommended offer: $591k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whipple Ranch Elementary School (404 students, 50% FRL); Show Low Junior High School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 587 students, 45% FRL); Show Low High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 877 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $600k implies a 2253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $591,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.74%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $709,659
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1840 N 36th Dr	0.19mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,846 (+5%)	14mo	$564,000	$198	67
1490 N 40Th Cir	0.12mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,635 (-3%)	20mo	$1,025,000	$389	66
1641 N 36th Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,625 (-4%)	21mo	$600,000	$229	66
4101 W Thornton Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,536 (-7%)	12mo	$525,000	$207	66
1220 N Fairway Ln	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,487 (-8%)	22mo	$650,000	$261	51
1080 N 47th Dr	0.51mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,950 (+8%)	8mo	$485,000	$164	50
3591 W Fairway Ct	0.34mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,093 (+14%)	8mo	$839,333	$271	50
1420 N Hidden Hollow Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,430 (-11%)	12mo	$645,000	$265	50
1260 N 36th Dr	0.28mi	4/4.0	2,984 (+10%)	21mo	$390,000	$131	49
3031 W Alpine Ridge Rd	0.64mi	4/3.0	3,038 (+12%)	2mo	$885,000	$291	49
4701 W Hawthorn Rd	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,618 (-4%)	19mo	$1,180,000	$451	44
921 N 36Th Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,350 (-14%)	18mo	$519,000	$221	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $25,056
• Equity at exit: $89,462

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $178,649
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,520/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,470
• Net cashflow: $1,923

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,565

Max offer price $600,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,263	-5% $2,093	+0% $1,923	+5% $1,754	+10% $1,584
Rent	-10% $1,370	-5% $1,647	+0% $1,923	+5% $2,200	+10% $2,476
Rate	-1.0pp $2,226	-0.5pp $2,076	base $1,923	+0.5pp $1,768	+1.0pp $1,610

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4500 W Hackberry Ln #161 Show Low, AZ	4.0	3.5	2761	$7,000	$2.54	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $600,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $600,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $600,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $600,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $600,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $600,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $600,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $600,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $600,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $600,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on market $600,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-04
    listed $585,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 13 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,520 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,960 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,440/yr (+$120/mo · 57.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $84,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$2,520
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,720
• − Management: −$6,720
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable income: $13,976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,354
• After-tax cash flow: $19,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2826.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $600,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $585,000 ARMLS
• 1999-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records
• 1998-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $20,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,520 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.