103 Lochinvar Rd · Hemlock Farms, PA 18425

$75,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,108 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1978 $68/sqft · 35% below area Est $115k · 35% under $21/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * Actual Adress: 103 Lochinvar Rd Greely Pa 18425 * * Spacious 2 bed 2 bath ranch style mobile home on a permanent foundation in beautiful Greely Pa!! Located close to state game lands and some of the area's best lakes providing an abundance of outdoor options. The home features: Large paved driveway, private yard, first floor laundry, and two full baths. Home needs TLC and one area of floor

Key facts

• Large paved driveway
• First floor laundry
• Private yard

Tags

• LARGE PAVED DRIVEWAY
• PRIVATE YARD
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• STATE GAME LANDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.88%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,000
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -34.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
236 Well Rd	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,050 (-5%)	4mo	$115,000	$110	78
141 Galahad Rd	0.15mi	2/1.0	941 (-15%)	13mo	$50,000	$53	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $39,846
• Equity at exit: $39,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $100,002
• Equity at exit: $65,427

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18425

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,085/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $678

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   * * Actual Adress: 103 Lochinvar Rd Greely Pa 18425 * * Spacious 2 bed 2 bath ranch style mobile home on a permanent foundation in beautiful Greely Pa!! Located close to state game lands and some of the area's best lakes providing an abundance of outdoor options. The home features: Large paved driveway, private yard, first floor laundry, and two full baths. Home needs TLC and one area of floor

2. 2026-03-10
   listed $75,000 Active 401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   * * Actual Adress: 103 Lochinvar Rd Greely Pa 18425 * * Spacious 2 bed 2 bath ranch style mobile home on a permanent foundation in beautiful Greely Pa!! Located close to state game lands and some of the area's best lakes providing an abundance of outdoor options. The home features: Large paved driveway, private yard, first floor laundry, and two full baths. Home needs TLC and one area of floor

3. 2018-09-06
   soldstatus $51,000
4. 2018-09-05
   soldstatus $51,000 519-char remark

   Show marketing remark (519 chars)

   Large well maintained full time or weekend getaway. 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Ranch Mobile Home with sunroom/dining room addition. Covered front entry, paved driveway and 15 x 12 exterior deck. Newer roof, recent replacement of well pump, water heater and well holding tank. Private . 46 acre backyard. Full length crawl space and large exterior shed for storage. Close to State Game lands. Very low taxes. Move in condition!, Beds Description: Primary1st, Baths: 2 Bath Lev 1, Eating Area: Modern KT, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st

5. 2018-06-22
   listed $55,000 519-char remark

   Show marketing remark (519 chars)

   Large well maintained full time or weekend getaway. 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Ranch Mobile Home with sunroom/dining room addition. Covered front entry, paved driveway and 15 x 12 exterior deck. Newer roof, recent replacement of well pump, water heater and well holding tank. Private . 46 acre backyard. Full length crawl space and large exterior shed for storage. Close to State Game lands. Very low taxes. Move in condition!, Beds Description: Primary1st, Baths: 2 Bath Lev 1, Eating Area: Modern KT, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st

6. 2004-09-03
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,085 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,135 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$50/yr (+$4/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,085
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,138
• − Management: −$1,138
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,852
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$924
• After-tax cash flow: $3,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,053

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 6% Serbian 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Current HPI: 216.6566
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+15.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — LCAR
• 2026-03-10 Listed $75,000 LCAR
• 2018-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-05 Sold (MLS) $51,000 PWMLS
• 2018-06-22 Listed $55,000 PWMLS
• 2004-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,085 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.