12458 Old Colony Dr · Marlton, MD 20772

$210,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,332 sqft · Townhouse public records

Built 1989 1,500 sqft lot Est $360k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $737 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.2% in Marlton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#224 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Marlton Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #699 of 860 statewide, top 84%, 309 students, 62% FRL); James Madison Middle (math 4% / reading 27%, grade F, #190 of 225 statewide, top 85%, 873 students, 62% FRL); Frederick Douglass High (math 18% / reading 40%, grade F, #157 of 222 statewide, top 71%, 1,159 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.05%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12921 Marlton Center Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+2%)	9mo	$420,000	$309	83
8603 Sweet Rose Ct	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+4%)	8mo	$410,000	$296	81
12919 Marlton Center Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,374 (+3%)	12mo	$425,000	$309	78
12406 Old Colony Dr	0.11mi	3/3.0	1,280 (-4%)	11mo	$400,000	$313	77
12819 Carousel Ct	0.13mi	3/3.0	1,408 (+6%)	9mo	$380,000	$270	75
12608 Marlton Center Dr	0.23mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,374 (+3%)	2mo	$375,000	$273	74
12824 Town Center Way	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,504 (+13%)	2mo	$400,000	$266	67
9093 Florin Way	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,378 (+4%)	1mo	$340,000	$247	66
12720 Wedgedale Ct	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,452 (+9%)	12mo	$360,000	$248	59
8901 Grandhaven Ave	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,458 (+10%)	9mo	$350,000	$240	51
8500 Biscayne Ct	0.47mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,468 (+10%)	4mo	$365,000	$249	49
9083 Florin Way	0.54mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,268 (-5%)	12mo	$290,000	$229	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $29,104
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $159,301
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20772

• Rents YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$464 /mo · $5,572/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$635
• Net cashflow: $737

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,092

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $856	-5% $797	+0% $737	+5% $678	+10% $619
Rent	-10% $498	-5% $618	+0% $737	+5% $857	+10% $977
Rate	-1.0pp $843	-0.5pp $791	base $737	+0.5pp $683	+1.0pp $628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8516 Grandhaven Ave Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	1332	$2,900	$2.18	13d	1	0.06mi
8605 Sweet Rose Ct Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	3.5	1600	$3,200	$2.00	6d	1	0.15mi
8605 Sweet Rose Ct Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	3.5	1600	$3,200	$2.00	0d	1	0.15mi
12902 Woods View St Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	3.5	1360	$2,695	$1.98	13d	1	0.15mi
12825 Town Center Way Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	1854	$2,900	$1.56	44d	1	0.18mi
12705 Town Center Way Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	1240	$2,700	$2.18	19d	1	0.24mi
11904 N Marlton Ave Upper Marlboro, MD	4.0	3.0	1444	$2,900	$2.01	13d	1	0.53mi
12605 Trumbull Dr Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	1422	$2,500	$1.76	6d	1	0.56mi
9023 Florin Way Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	1.5	1268	$3,190	$2.52	44d	1	0.59mi
7223 Havre Turn Upper Marlboro, MD	2.0	2.0	1680	$2,650	$1.58	13d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-01-28
   historical
2. 2025-01-28
   listed $210,000
3. 2004-11-24
   soldstatus $197,000
4. 1999-11-08
   soldstatus $120,000
5. 1999-10-29
   soldstatus $120,000
6. 1999-10-05
   listed $120,000
7. 1999-10-05
   historical
8. 1990-02-09
   soldstatus $113,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,572 · $464/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,572 · $464/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$5,572
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,905
• − Management: −$2,905
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $6,008
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,442
• After-tax cash flow: $7,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Marlton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #11234

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlton, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 54,319
• Household income: $139,403
• Rent vs Own: 10.7% rent · 89.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 524.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 78% White 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -184.63%
• Current HPI: 251.8236
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.80%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+85.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-28 Listed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $197,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-29 Sold (MLS) $120,000 MRIS
• 1999-10-05 Listed $120,000 MRIS
• 1999-10-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 1990-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,572 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.