417 Tolbert St · Tupelo, MS 38804

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1943 4,792 sqft lot Est $78k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated seller. 3 bedroom, 1 bath with chain link fence. Sold ''As Is''.

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Built 1943
• Listed 13 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#26 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, employment D+.
• Tupelo Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #28 of 130 in MS (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.37%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,400
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1017 Hunter St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,234 (+1%)	19mo	$55,000	$45	66
611 Hibner St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,254 (+2%)	20mo	$80,000	$64	51
617 Hibner St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,189 (-3%)	20mo	$85,000	$71	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $12,565
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $47,931
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38804

• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,363 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $706/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $452

Break-even live

Break-even rent $791

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $509	-5% $480	+0% $452	+5% $424	+10% $395
Rent	-10% $344	-5% $398	+0% $452	+5% $506	+10% $560
Rate	-1.0pp $502	-0.5pp $477	base $452	+0.5pp $426	+1.0pp $400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1017 Hunter Ave Tupelo, MS	3.0	1.0	1234	$1,100	$0.89	44d	1	0.36mi
328 N Madison St Apt 1 Tupelo, MS	2.0	2.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	44d	1	0.62mi
151 S Green St Unit 4 Tupelo, MS	2.0	1.0	950	$1,235	$1.30	44d	1	0.95mi
699 Nation Hills Dr Tupelo, MS	2.0	2.0	970	$1,569	$1.62	44d	1	1.28mi
699 Nation Hills Dr Tupelo, MS	2.0	2.0	942	$1,455	$1.54	45d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   remarks 74-char remark
2. 2026-06-01
   listed $100,000 Pending 13 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$84/yr (+$7/mo · 11.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$706
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,025
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$966
• After-tax cash flow: $4,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tupelo Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2804320
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,002
• Composite: 37.26/100
• National rank: #4456
• State rank: #28 of 130 in MS

Livability — Tupelo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #6369

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tupelo, MS
• County: Lee County · 52,445 people
• City population: 46,551
• Metro: Tupelo, MS
• Population (ZIP): 16,693
• Household income: $64,420
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,253 people
• By 2030: 92,125 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 94,914 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 95,841 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 94,189 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 83,736 · -7.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 30% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.5pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+37.7 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+30.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.19%
• Current HPI: 172.0153
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tupelo, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — NEMSBD
• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) — NEMSBD
• 2026-04-16 Listed $100,000 NEMSBD

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $706 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.