1 Bay Dr #3506 · Kapalua, HI 96761

$359,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,065 sqft · Condo public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2008 $174/sqft · 242% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.2/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Resort at Kapalua Bay, ex Montage. Breathtaking views of Molokai are witnessed every day from this penthouse top floor, ideally located 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath residence at Montage Kapalua Bay. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 consecutive deeded days every year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is three prime consecutive weeks in mid January to early February each year (weeks 3-5). There are ONLY five fractional interests that exist at the property with these 3 fixed consecutive weeks. Owners have full reciprocity exchange privileges with Timbers Resorts 13 properties. Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. The Association Dues are paid quarterly. Hawaii’s newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! Still photos depict this unit’s floorplan. The 3D Tour was taken from 3506’s lanai, the Video/Virtual Tour is the actual interior floor plan. Future deeded dates: 2026 Call for dates | 2027 Jan 16 - Feb 6 | 2028 Jan 15 - Feb 5 |

Key facts

• In-residence dining
• Signature restaurant
• Assigned concierge

Tags

• LANAI OFF THE 3RD BEDROOM
• DEEDED FRACTIONAL OWNERSHIP
• TWICE DAILY HOUSEKEEPING
• ASSIGNED CONCIERGE
• IN-RESIDENCE DINING
• SIGNATURE RESTAURANT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 2420040280079
• Financial info: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Utilities: Central A/C
• Home design: Residential Income property; Part of Residences on Kapalua Bay; Built in 2008 (effective year 2026)
• Construction: Living area approximately 2,065
• Exterior features: Covered lanai/deck; Heated in-ground pool; Spa / hot tub

Interior

• Bathrooms: 4 total bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ocean view; Oceanfront property

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $359k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-57k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $359k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#102 in HI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: King Kamehameha Iii Elementary School (math 41% / reading 51%, grade D-, #68 of 183 statewide, top 37%, 607 students, 40% FRL); Lahaina Intermediate School (math 19% / reading 42%, grade F, #27 of 42 statewide, top 63%, 647 students, 51% FRL); Lahainaluna High School (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #30 of 43 statewide, top 76%, 1,037 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 637 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 906 units permitted in Maui County in 2024 (289 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,692/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 835% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maui County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 15 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $359k implies a 263% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 119% of rent.

Recommended offer $359,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: -9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -56.70%
• DSCR: -1.52
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,000
• List price: $359,000
• Delta: 260.95%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.49×
• Total profit: $-350,799
• Equity at exit: $53,528

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -5.51×
• Total profit: $-654,245
• Equity at exit: $31,040

Cash invested: $100,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96761

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 637
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$449 /mo · $5,385/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$6,765
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,195
• Net cashflow: $-4,749

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,704

Max offer price —

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,501	-5% $-4,625	+0% $-4,749	+5% $-4,873	+10% $-4,997
Rent	-10% $-5,199	-5% $-4,974	+0% $-4,749	+5% $-4,524	+10% $-4,299
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,568	-0.5pp $-4,658	base $-4,749	+0.5pp $-4,842	+1.0pp $-4,937

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,750
• Closing costs: $10,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Hui Rd F Lahaina, HI	3.0	2.0	2558	$6,500	$2.54	4d	1	0.83mi
10 Wailele Kai Ln Lahaina, HI	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1390	$6,160	$4.43	4d	8	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pooldoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $359,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 695-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $359,000 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,000 Active 415 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,000 Active 413 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,000 Active 412 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $379,000 Active 410 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,000 Active 409 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,000 Active 408 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,000 Active 407 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $379,000 Active 404 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,000 Active 403 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,000 Active 402 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,000 Active 401 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,000 Active 400 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $379,000 1214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1214 chars)

    The Resort at Kapalua Bay, ex Montage. Breathtaking views of Molokai are witnessed every day from this penthouse top floor, ideally located 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath residence at Montage Kapalua Bay. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 consecutive deeded days every year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is three prime consecutive weeks in mid January to early February each year (weeks 3-5). There are ONLY five fractional interests that exist at the property with these 3 fixed consecutive weeks. Owners have full reciprocity exchange privileges with Timbers Resorts 13 properties. Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. The Association Dues are paid quarterly. Hawaii’s newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! Still photos depict this unit’s floorplan. The 3D Tour was taken from 3506’s lanai, the Video/Virtual Tour is the actual interior floor plan. Future deeded dates: 2026 Call for dates | 2027 Jan 16 - Feb 6 | 2028 Jan 15 - Feb 5 |

18. 2026-04-20
    price $389,000 1214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1214 chars)

    The Resort at Kapalua Bay, ex Montage. Breathtaking views of Molokai are witnessed every day from this penthouse top floor, ideally located 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath residence at Montage Kapalua Bay. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 consecutive deeded days every year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is three prime consecutive weeks in mid January to early February each year (weeks 3-5). There are ONLY five fractional interests that exist at the property with these 3 fixed consecutive weeks. Owners have full reciprocity exchange privileges with Timbers Resorts 13 properties. Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. The Association Dues are paid quarterly. Hawaii’s newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! Still photos depict this unit’s floorplan. The 3D Tour was taken from 3506’s lanai, the Video/Virtual Tour is the actual interior floor plan. Future deeded dates: 2026 Call for dates | 2027 Jan 16 - Feb 6 | 2028 Jan 15 - Feb 5 |

19. 2025-08-22
    historical
20. 2025-04-25
    listed $379,000 Active 1214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1214 chars)

    The Resort at Kapalua Bay, ex Montage. Breathtaking views of Molokai are witnessed every day from this penthouse top floor, ideally located 3 bedroom, 3 ½ bath residence at Montage Kapalua Bay. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 consecutive deeded days every year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is three prime consecutive weeks in mid January to early February each year (weeks 3-5). There are ONLY five fractional interests that exist at the property with these 3 fixed consecutive weeks. Owners have full reciprocity exchange privileges with Timbers Resorts 13 properties. Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. The Association Dues are paid quarterly. Hawaii’s newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! Still photos depict this unit’s floorplan. The 3D Tour was taken from 3506’s lanai, the Video/Virtual Tour is the actual interior floor plan. Future deeded dates: 2026 Call for dates | 2027 Jan 16 - Feb 6 | 2028 Jan 15 - Feb 5 |

21. 2025-04-04
    listed $379,000 Active
22. 2024-08-22
    listed $339,000 Active
23. 2023-11-17
    soldstatus $98,800
24. 2023-02-15
    soldstatus $370,000 Sold
25. 2022-09-22
    listed $389,000 Active
26. 2022-01-28
    soldstatus $183,000 Sold
27. 2021-08-27
    soldstatus $320,000 Sold
28. 2020-09-04
    price $195,000
29. 2020-09-04
    status Active
30. 2020-08-31
    historical
31. 2020-03-31
    price $249,000
32. 2019-09-04
    listed $299,000 Active
33. 2018-05-07
    historical
34. 2017-11-15
    listed $269,000 Active
35. 2017-05-20
    listed $349,000 Active
36. 2017-05-19
    historical
37. 2017-02-23
    soldstatus $259,000 Sold
38. 2017-01-24
    status Pending - Do not Show
39. 2016-12-07
    price $325,000
40. 2016-12-06
    status Active
41. 2016-12-02
    historical
42. 2016-10-08
    listed $349,000 Active
43. 2016-10-08
    historical
44. 2016-02-19
    price $349,000
45. 2015-09-04
    listed $399,000 Active
46. 2015-07-21
    status Active
47. 2015-07-19
    historical
48. 2015-04-03
    listed $395,000 Active
49. 2014-09-29
    soldstatus $385,000
50. 2014-07-24
    listed $395,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,110
• − Property taxes: −$5,385
• − Insurance: −$1,795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,464
• − Management: −$5,464
• − HOA: −$81,180
• − Depreciation: −$10,444
• Taxable loss: −$61,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,769
• After-tax cash flow: $-42,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Kapalua

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #20456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kapalua, HI
• County: Maui County · 114,195 people
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• Population (ZIP): 20,952
• Household income: $101,123
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 835.0

Population outlook (Maui County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 185,013 people
• By 2030: 194,315 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 210,917 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 226,396 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 270,475 · +46.2%
• By 2100: 316,825 · +71.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: White 35% Asian 29% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 13% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 12% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maui

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.9) · D 61.9% · R 36.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.3pp toward R · 2008: 55.2pp · 2024: 25.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.9 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+38.6 2012: D+50.3 2008: D+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.68%
• Current HPI: 389.2894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+172.6% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $359,000 RAM MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $379,000 RAM MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $389,000 RAM MLS
• 2025-08-22 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $379,000 RAM MLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $379,000 RAM MLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed $339,000 RAM MLS
• 2023-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $98,800 Public Records
• 2023-02-15 Sold (MLS) $370,000 RAM MLS
• 2022-09-22 Listed $389,000 RAM MLS
• 2022-01-28 Sold (MLS) $183,000 RAM MLS
• 2021-08-27 Sold (MLS) $320,000 RAM MLS
• 2020-09-04 Price Changed $195,000 RAM MLS
• 2020-09-04 Relisted — RAM MLS
• 2020-08-31 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2020-03-31 Price Changed $249,000 RAM MLS
• 2019-09-04 Listed $299,000 RAM MLS
• 2018-05-07 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2017-11-15 Listed $269,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-05-20 Listed $349,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-05-19 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2017-02-23 Sold (MLS) $259,000 RAM MLS
• 2017-01-24 Pending — RAM MLS
• 2016-12-07 Price Changed $325,000 RAM MLS
• 2016-12-06 Relisted — RAM MLS
• 2016-12-02 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2016-10-08 Listed $349,000 RAM MLS
• 2016-10-08 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2016-02-19 Price Changed $349,000 RAM MLS
• 2015-09-04 Listed $399,000 RAM MLS
• 2015-07-21 Relisted — RAM MLS
• 2015-07-19 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2015-04-03 Listed $395,000 RAM MLS
• 2014-09-29 Sold (MLS) $385,000 RAM MLS
• 2014-07-24 Listed $395,000 RAM MLS
• 2013-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $131,682 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $68,870 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.