10383 Larkin Rd #44 · Live Oak, CA 95953

$149,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · Manufactured public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1978 3,877 sqft lot $91/sqft · 45% above area Est $103k · 45% over ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live Oak Senior Park. 55 + . Nicely maintained 3 Bedroom / 2 Bath - Triple Wide Mobile home with covered front deck. Very stylish French Doors greet you at entrance. Covered carport and shed. Reverse osmosis water filter system and water softener. A/C and central heat. Very large walk-in closet off the living room , which Could be used as small office space. Currently used as pantry. Very spacious Master Bedroom and bath. Bath has walk in jetted tub with high seat for older persons. There is a sitting room near the other two bedrooms and second bath, that could be walled off with door for a live-in care taker or additional senior family members. Kitchen and Laundry would still be accessible from both sides of home. The open floor plan makes for many possibilities . Built in dining room cabinets. Lots of storage. ADT alarm system. This will be a truly GREAT place to live. Come and see for yourself. All offers will be considered. This is an “AS IS “ Sale and owner will not make any repairs.

Key facts

• New ac unit
• Covered carport
• Front porch

Tags

• TRIPLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC UNIT
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• COVERED CARPORT
• FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $851 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.8% in Live Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#197 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities A, commute A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Live Oak Unified (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #569 of 1,400 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Luther Elementary (784 students, 76% FRL); Live Oak Middle (389 students, 75% FRL); Live Oak High (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 595 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools at 73% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Sutter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sutter County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $150k implies a 327% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,530 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.39%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,394
• List price: $149,500
• Delta: 44.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10377 Wooley Rd Unit A	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (+9%)	7mo	$460,000	$258	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $29,896
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $95,544
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95953

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $337/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $851

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,107

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $935	-5% $893	+0% $851	+5% $808	+10% $766
Rent	-10% $678	-5% $765	+0% $851	+5% $937	+10% $1,023
Rate	-1.0pp $926	-0.5pp $889	base $851	+0.5pp $812	+1.0pp $773

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,500 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,500 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,500 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,500 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,500 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,500 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,500 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,500 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,500 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,500 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,500 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,500 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,500 Active 59 DOM
19. 2018-01-30
    soldstatus $35,000 1016-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

    Live Oak Senior Park. 55 + . Nicely maintained 3 Bedroom / 2 Bath - Triple Wide Mobile home with covered front deck. Very stylish French Doors greet you at entrance. Covered carport and shed. Reverse osmosis water filter system and water softener. A/C and central heat. Very large walk-in closet off the living room , which Could be used as small office space. Currently used as pantry. Very spacious Master Bedroom and bath. Bath has walk in jetted tub with high seat for older persons. There is a sitting room near the other two bedrooms and second bath, that could be walled off with door for a live-in care taker or additional senior family members. Kitchen and Laundry would still be accessible from both sides of home. The open floor plan makes for many possibilities . Built in dining room cabinets. Lots of storage. ADT alarm system. This will be a truly GREAT place to live. Come and see for yourself. All offers will be considered. This is an “AS IS “ Sale and owner will not make any repairs.

20. 2017-09-01
    listed $40,000 1016-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1016 chars)

    Live Oak Senior Park. 55 + . Nicely maintained 3 Bedroom / 2 Bath - Triple Wide Mobile home with covered front deck. Very stylish French Doors greet you at entrance. Covered carport and shed. Reverse osmosis water filter system and water softener. A/C and central heat. Very large walk-in closet off the living room , which Could be used as small office space. Currently used as pantry. Very spacious Master Bedroom and bath. Bath has walk in jetted tub with high seat for older persons. There is a sitting room near the other two bedrooms and second bath, that could be walled off with door for a live-in care taker or additional senior family members. Kitchen and Laundry would still be accessible from both sides of home. The open floor plan makes for many possibilities . Built in dining room cabinets. Lots of storage. ADT alarm system. This will be a truly GREAT place to live. Come and see for yourself. All offers will be considered. This is an “AS IS “ Sale and owner will not make any repairs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $337 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,136 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$800/yr (+$67/mo · 237.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$337
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable income: $8,204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,969
• After-tax cash flow: $8,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Live Oak Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,813
• Composite: 40.92/100
• National rank: #7511
• State rank: #569 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Live Oak

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #6366

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Live Oak, CA
• City population: 36,047
• Population (ZIP): 10,945

Population outlook (Sutter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,244 people
• By 2030: 97,170 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 96,137 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 93,604 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 85,008 · -12.6%
• By 2100: 71,584 · -26.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 37% Two or more races 16% Asian 16% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sutter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.1% · R 64.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.7pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+16.3 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.98%
• Current HPI: 265.9488
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2018-01-30 Sold (MLS) $35,000 CRMLS
• 2017-09-01 Listed $40,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $337 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.