563 Constitution Dr · Winchester, KY 40391

$104,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Other · 17 Days on market

Built 1985 3,920 sqft lot $150/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable housing! Check out this newly remodeled and updated home! 2 bedroom, 2 full bath! All new flooring, cabinets, vanities, and so much more! No lot rent here! You will own the lot as well, making this a great option for starter, downsizing, investment property (previously rented for $925), or just an affordable home. Nice covered porch, 2 storage sheds, brand new metal roof! $150 per month HOA fee covers your water, sewer, trash, and common area maintenance. FHA loans will require extended closing time due to ownership rules.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• New flooring
• New cabinets

Tags

• NEWLY REMODELED
• UPDATED HOME
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW VANITIES
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association with monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; One-level
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Built on pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Pillar/post/pier foundation

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup (main level); Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#393 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clark County (town): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #64 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willis H. Justice Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #434 of 676 statewide, top 69%, 427 students, 66% FRL); Robert D. Campbell Jr. High (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 820 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 291 active listings in the ZIP; 160 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $105k implies a 483% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $103,326 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.22%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,142
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $13,065
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40391

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,222 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $240/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $967

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $231	+0% $201	+5% $171	+10% $142
Rent	-10% $105	-5% $153	+0% $201	+5% $249	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $254	-0.5pp $228	base $201	+0.5pp $174	+1.0pp $146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $104,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $104,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 539-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $104,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $240 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$662/yr (+$55/mo · 275.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$240
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
• − Management: −$1,173
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $821
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$197
• After-tax cash flow: $2,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County
• NCES district ID: 2101200
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $47,282
• Composite: 29.63/100
• National rank: #6469
• State rank: #64 of 165 in KY

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #393
• US rank: #18931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clark County · 36,796 people
• City population: 36,796
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 36,796
• Household income: $64,144
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 854.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,849 people
• By 2030: 35,616 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 34,727 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 33,195 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 29,439 · -17.9%
• By 2100: 24,744 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.3) · D 31.6% · R 66.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.1pp · 2024: -35.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.3 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+30.5 2008: R+25.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.24%
• Current HPI: 283.7839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+482.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $104,900 ImagineMLS
• 2023-07-29 Rental Removed $850 APPFOLIO
• 2023-07-12 Listed for Rent $850 APPFOLIO
• 2012-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $240 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.