221 New Mexico Dr · Portales, NM 88130

$125,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,864 sqft · Other · 164 Days on market

7,290 sqft lot $67/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTORS ONLY on this house that has tons of potential! This would make a great rental property with a little TLC. Cash only, this one will not qualify for most loan types as heat needs to be redone. Inside you'll find 4 good sized bedrooms including a newer renovated primary bedroom plus two and and a half baths! Primary bathroom is currently down to studs just waiting for you to finish in the style of your choosing. There are two living areas with one of them featuring a cozy brick fireplace! Outside you'll find two great storage building options in a great sized backyard. Call today to see this home!

Key facts

• 7,290 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 163 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#63 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Portales Municipal Schools (town): math 17% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #15 of 29 in NM (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 31 units permitted in Roosevelt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roosevelt County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.04%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,000
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -54.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,565
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $48,553
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88130

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $802/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $980

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1700 South Avenue B Unit B Portales, NM	3.0	2.0	1706	$1,800	$1.06	44d	1	1.07mi
1802 South Avenue A Unit A Portales, NM	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,150	$0.73	44d	1	1.10mi
1515 S Abilene Ave Portales, NM	3.0	2.0	2462	$1,500	$0.61	44d	1	1.38mi
312 North Avenue B Portales, NM	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 144 DOM
17. 2026-01-06
    listed $125,000 Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    INVESTORS ONLY on this house that has tons of potential! This would make a great rental property with a little TLC. Cash only, this one will not qualify for most loan types as heat needs to be redone. Inside you'll find 4 good sized bedrooms including a newer renovated primary bedroom plus two and and a half baths! Primary bathroom is currently down to studs just waiting for you to finish in the style of your choosing. There are two living areas with one of them featuring a cozy brick fireplace! Outside you'll find two great storage building options in a great sized backyard. Call today to see this home!

18. 2017-07-11
    soldstatus
19. 2017-06-30
    soldstatus 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    This 4 bedroom home, located just 2 blocks from ENMU, and not in the flood zone, offers a nice, quiet, established neighborhood, and beautiful hardwood floors in the living room and dining room. There's also a nice-sized shop in the back yard. The roof is new as of May 2016, and the HVAC is new as of September 2016. This home is ready to move into today!

20. 2017-05-01
    listed $114,900 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    This 4 bedroom home, located just 2 blocks from ENMU, and not in the flood zone, offers a nice, quiet, established neighborhood, and beautiful hardwood floors in the living room and dining room. There's also a nice-sized shop in the back yard. The roof is new as of May 2016, and the HVAC is new as of September 2016. This home is ready to move into today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $802 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,000 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$198/yr (+$16/mo · 24.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$802
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$551
• After-tax cash flow: $3,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portales Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502100
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $36,151
• Composite: 30.52/100
• National rank: #6209
• State rank: #15 of 29 in NM

Livability — Portales

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #13640

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portales, NM
• County: Roosevelt County · 17,842 people
• City population: 17,842
• Metro: Portales, NM
• Population (ZIP): 17,842
• Household income: $52,434
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Roosevelt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,821 people
• By 2030: 15,818 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 13,766 · -18.2%
• By 2050: 12,152 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 9,601 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 8,241 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Roosevelt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.4% · R 70.6% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: -29.9pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+42.9 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+29.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.72%
• Current HPI: 108.0555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Metro: Portales, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+8.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $125,000 NMMLS
• 2017-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-30 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2017-05-01 Listed $114,900 NMMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $802 · -22.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.