145 NE Craig Ave · Watertown, FL 32055

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1955 9,714 sqft lot Est $119k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL!!! NEEDS IMPROVEMENT. HAS PINE TONGUE AND GROOVED WALLS THROUGHOUT. FENCED BACKYARD WITH A METAL BUILDING AND A DOUBLE METAL CARPORT. THE LATTICE IS OVER THE SCREENED-IN FRONT PORCH IS FOR PRIVACY.

Key facts

• Pinewood walls
• 2-car metal carport
• Vintage charmer

Tags

• VINTAGE CHARMER
• PINEWOOD WALLS
• NEW ROOF
• SCREENED-IN FRONT PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• 2-CAR METAL CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: CI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Single-story residential home; Frame construction
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered, screened patio/porch; Shed(s); Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooktop; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#798 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Niblack Elementary School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 282 students, 88% FRL); Columbia High School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,737 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 54% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Columbia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $120k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.72%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,040
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 NE Granger Mill Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	918 (-4%)	15mo	$42,000	$46	69
362 NE Williams St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,025 (+7%)	14mo	$166,000	$162	59
243 SE Craig Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,092 (+14%)	17mo	$135,000	$124	54
437 SE Tribble St	0.69mi	3/1.5	920 (-4%)	10mo	$180,000	$196	50
460 SE Country Club Rd	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	875 (-9%)	14mo	$99,000	$113	49
367 SE Tribble St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,103 (+15%)	2mo	$160,000	$145	41
1020 SE Brock Glen Lake City	0.75mi	3/1.0	869 (-10%)	22mo	$107,000	$123	30
538 SE Lomond Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,092 (+14%)	23mo	$60,000	$55	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $86,266
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.07×
• Total profit: $237,636
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32055

• Home prices YoY: 24.1%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,653/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,034

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $362	+0% $328	+5% $294	+10% $260
Rent	-10% $214	-5% $271	+0% $328	+5% $385	+10% $443
Rate	-1.0pp $389	-0.5pp $359	base $328	+0.5pp $297	+1.0pp $265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 114 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $120,000
19. 2026-03-09
    price $130,000
20. 2026-02-25
    price $140,000
21. 2026-02-05
    listed $150,000 Active
22. 2024-07-26
    soldstatus $65,000
23. 2024-07-01
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL!!! NEEDS IMPROVEMENT. HAS PINE TONGUE AND GROOVED WALLS THROUGHOUT. FENCED BACKYARD WITH A METAL BUILDING AND A DOUBLE METAL CARPORT. THE LATTICE IS OVER THE SCREENED-IN FRONT PORCH IS FOR PRIVACY.

24. 2024-05-12
    listed $76,500 Active 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL!!! NEEDS IMPROVEMENT. HAS PINE TONGUE AND GROOVED WALLS THROUGHOUT. FENCED BACKYARD WITH A METAL BUILDING AND A DOUBLE METAL CARPORT. THE LATTICE IS OVER THE SCREENED-IN FRONT PORCH IS FOR PRIVACY.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,653 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,653 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,653
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$515
• After-tax cash flow: $3,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #18481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,559
• Household income: $61,111
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 391.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 29% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 67.79%
• Current HPI: 348.8923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+56.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $120,000 NFMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $130,000 NFMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $140,000 NFMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $150,000 NFMLS
• 2024-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-01 Sold (MLS) $65,000 NFMLS
• 2024-05-12 Listed $76,500 NFMLS

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,653 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.