Morrow Plan · Sonterra, TX 76537

$252,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,925 sqft · SingleFamily · 125 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottages is a collection of new single-family homes for sale at Cool Water at Sonterra, a masterplan community in Jarrell, TX. Located near IH-35, residents have easy access to local shopping centers such as the Round Rock Premium Outlets and Wolf Ranch Town Center, as well as Jarrell Memorial Park, which features hiking and biking trails. Plus, the family-friendly community is situated within the well-respected Jarrell ISD.

Key facts

• Masterplan community
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 125 days

Tags

• NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
• MASTERPLAN COMMUNITY
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• HIKING AND BIKING TRAILS
• WELL-RESPECTED JARRELL ISD

🏗️ New construction. The $252,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $333,472.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-625 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,625 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.03%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,472
• List price: $252,999
• Delta: -24.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Mclintock Rd	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,033 (+6%)	4mo	$309,900	$152	84
133 Starpacker Ln	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,925 (0%)	2mo	$255,990	$133	84
352 Brannigan Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,925 (0%)	3mo	$260,990	$136	81
145 Hatari Trl	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,945 (+1%)	1mo	$307,990	$158	78
320 Brannigan Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+3%)	5mo	$241,990	$122	76
345 Brannigan Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+3%)	3mo	$249,990	$126	76
732 Barbary Coast Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,198 (+14%)	3mo	$318,000	$145	68
208 Night Riders Way	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,121 (+10%)	2mo	$270,000	$127	68
137 Hatari Trl	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,047 (+6%)	4mo	$315,998	$154	67
910 Yellow Ribbon Cv	0.57mi	4/3.0	1,888 (-2%)	2mo	$279,276	$148	66
105 Green Berets Bnd	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,837 (-5%)	4mo	$299,990	$163	66
313 Blue Steel Rd	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,198 (+14%)	4mo	$295,000	$134	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-100,031
• Equity at exit: $49,722

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-162,298
• Equity at exit: $28,833

Cash invested: $93,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,126 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,749
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$417 /mo · $5,002/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-625

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,917

Max offer price $243,061

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-394	-5% $-510	+0% $-625	+5% $-740	+10% $-855
Rent	-10% $-793	-5% $-709	+0% $-625	+5% $-541	+10% $-457
Rate	-1.0pp $-457	-0.5pp $-540	base $-625	+0.5pp $-711	+1.0pp $-799

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,368
• Closing costs: $10,004
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.03mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,528	$1.43	0d	1	0.07mi
316 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2560	$2,095	$0.82	45d	1	0.10mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	4d	1	0.10mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	9d	1	0.12mi
229 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$1,800	$0.93	0d	1	0.16mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.17mi
524 Barbary Coast Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	3.0	2552	$2,295	$0.90	0d	1	0.19mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	18d	1	0.26mi
224 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,200	$0.84	0d	1	0.30mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	0d	1	0.33mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	19d	1	0.65mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2468	$2,095	$0.85	0d	1	0.66mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2399	$2,095	$0.87	6d	1	0.66mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	5d	1	0.76mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,870	$0.98	0d	1	0.78mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	21d	1	0.81mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	18d	1	0.81mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	0.84mi
201 Katie Elder Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	2418	$1,795	$0.74	0d	1	0.88mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	45d	1	0.89mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	6d	1	1.07mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,895	$1.47	19d	1	1.12mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	25d	1	1.22mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	19d	1	1.22mi
504 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,895	$1.18	19d	1	1.23mi
508 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	1.24mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	22d	1	1.24mi
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,650	$1.01	45d	1	1.25mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	16d	1	1.27mi
1100 Jackson Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1839	$1,745	$0.95	6d	1	1.30mi
324 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1661	$1,650	$0.99	12d	1	1.31mi
244 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,545	$1.24	21d	1	1.36mi
637 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,795	$1.06	45d	1	1.41mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	4d	1	1.44mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	6d	1	1.44mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	45d	1	1.45mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	25d	1	1.45mi
112 Dollars Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,745	$0.89	45d	1	1.47mi
120 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$1,875	$0.98	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $252,999 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $252,999 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $252,999 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $252,999 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $252,999 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $252,499 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $252,499 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $251,999 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $251,999 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $251,999 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $251,999 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $247,499 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $247,499 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $246,999 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $246,999 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $246,999 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Cottages is a collection of new single-family homes for sale at Cool Water at Sonterra, a masterplan community in Jarrell, TX. Located near IH-35, residents have easy access to local shopping centers such as the Round Rock Premium Outlets and Wolf Ranch Town Center, as well as Jarrell Memorial Park, which features hiking and biking trails. Plus, the family-friendly community is situated within the well-respected Jarrell ISD.

17. 2026-05-10
    price $249,999 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Cottages is a collection of new single-family homes for sale at Cool Water at Sonterra, a masterplan community in Jarrell, TX. Located near IH-35, residents have easy access to local shopping centers such as the Round Rock Premium Outlets and Wolf Ranch Town Center, as well as Jarrell Memorial Park, which features hiking and biking trails. Plus, the family-friendly community is situated within the well-respected Jarrell ISD.

18. 2026-04-11
    price $252,999 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Cottages is a collection of new single-family homes for sale at Cool Water at Sonterra, a masterplan community in Jarrell, TX. Located near IH-35, residents have easy access to local shopping centers such as the Round Rock Premium Outlets and Wolf Ranch Town Center, as well as Jarrell Memorial Park, which features hiking and biking trails. Plus, the family-friendly community is situated within the well-respected Jarrell ISD.

19. 2026-03-31
    price $257,999 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Cottages is a collection of new single-family homes for sale at Cool Water at Sonterra, a masterplan community in Jarrell, TX. Located near IH-35, residents have easy access to local shopping centers such as the Round Rock Premium Outlets and Wolf Ranch Town Center, as well as Jarrell Memorial Park, which features hiking and biking trails. Plus, the family-friendly community is situated within the well-respected Jarrell ISD.

20. 2026-02-16
    listed $257,990 Active 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Cottages is a collection of new single-family homes for sale at Cool Water at Sonterra, a masterplan community in Jarrell, TX. Located near IH-35, residents have easy access to local shopping centers such as the Round Rock Premium Outlets and Wolf Ranch Town Center, as well as Jarrell Memorial Park, which features hiking and biking trails. Plus, the family-friendly community is situated within the well-respected Jarrell ISD.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,680
• − Property taxes: −$5,002
• − Insurance: −$1,667
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,041
• − Management: −$2,041
• − Depreciation: −$9,701
• Taxable loss: −$13,617
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,268
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Sonterra, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great investment opportunity with high resale and rental value potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $246,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $249,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $252,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $257,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $257,990 Zillow