Morrow Plan · Jarrell, TX 76537

$256,499

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,925 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottages is a collection of new single-family homes for sale at Cool Water at Sonterra, a masterplan community in Jarrell, TX. Located near IH-35, residents have easy access to local shopping centers such as the Round Rock Premium Outlets and Wolf Ranch Town Center, as well as Jarrell Memorial Park, which features hiking and biking trails. Plus, the family-friendly community is situated within the well-respected Jarrell ISD.

Key facts

• Masterplan community
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 172 days

Tags

• NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
• MASTERPLAN COMMUNITY
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• HIKING AND BIKING TRAILS
• WELL-RESPECTED JARRELL ISD

🏗️ New construction. The $256,499 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $332,345.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 915 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,879 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.34%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,345
• List price: $256,499
• Delta: -22.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Mclintock Rd	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,033 (+6%)	5mo	$309,900	$152	83
133 Starpacker Ln	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,925 (0%)	3mo	$255,990	$133	82
352 Brannigan Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,925 (0%)	5mo	$260,990	$136	80
145 Hatari Trl	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,945 (+1%)	2mo	$307,990	$158	76
345 Brannigan Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+3%)	4mo	$249,990	$126	74
732 Barbary Coast Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,198 (+14%)	4mo	$318,000	$145	67
208 Night Riders Way	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,121 (+10%)	4mo	$270,000	$127	67
137 Hatari Trl	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,047 (+6%)	5mo	$315,998	$154	66
910 Yellow Ribbon Cv	0.57mi	4/3.0	1,888 (-2%)	4mo	$279,276	$148	65
416 Paradise Canyon Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-12%)	1mo	$279,990	$166	55
408 Paradise Canyon Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-12%)	2mo	$271,719	$161	55
104 Hatari Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-12%)	1mo	$274,500	$163	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-101,127
• Equity at exit: $49,554

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.77×
• Total profit: $-164,619
• Equity at exit: $28,735

Cash invested: $93,056 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 108 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.2 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $281,495 ($151/sqft)
• Median days on market: 106 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 915
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,743
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$415 /mo · $4,985/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,907

Max offer price $238,778

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-417	-5% $-532	+0% $-647	+5% $-761	+10% $-876
Rent	-10% $-812	-5% $-729	+0% $-647	+5% $-564	+10% $-482
Rate	-1.0pp $-479	-0.5pp $-562	base $-647	+0.5pp $-733	+1.0pp $-820

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,086
• Closing costs: $9,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	93d	1	0.03mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,528	$1.43	9d	1	0.07mi
316 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2560	$2,095	$0.82	93d	1	0.10mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	52d	1	0.10mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$1,830	$0.99	13d	1	0.10mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	57d	1	0.12mi
229 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$1,800	$0.93	36d	1	0.16mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	9d	1	0.17mi
524 Barbary Coast Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	3.0	2552	$2,295	$0.90	9d	1	0.19mi
125 Paradise Canyon Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,095	$1.61	31d	1	0.20mi
216 The Duke Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,700	$1.20	30d	1	0.23mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	65d	1	0.26mi
113 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,500	$1.06	32d	1	0.28mi
137 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	9d	1	0.30mi
224 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,100	$0.80	11d	1	0.30mi
149 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	9d	1	0.31mi
153 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	16d	1	0.31mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	46d	1	0.33mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	67d	1	0.65mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2399	$2,095	$0.87	53d	1	0.66mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2468	$2,095	$0.85	46d	1	0.66mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,799	$1.20	41d	1	0.76mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,825	$0.96	34d	1	0.78mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,825	$0.96	38d	1	0.78mi
516 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,850	$1.05	21d	1	0.80mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	65d	1	0.81mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	68d	1	0.81mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	93d	1	0.84mi
201 Katie Elder Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	2418	$1,795	$0.74	47d	1	0.88mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	93d	1	0.89mi
316 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1909	$1,800	$0.94	41d	1	0.96mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	53d	1	1.07mi
744 Xanadu Dr Unit 53K Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1764	$1,750	$0.99	18d	1	1.10mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	9d	1	1.12mi
167 McNamara Ct Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,795	$1.42	18d	1	1.20mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	73d	1	1.22mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	67d	1	1.22mi
504 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,895	$1.18	67d	1	1.23mi
508 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	93d	1	1.24mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	41d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $256,499 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $256,499 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $256,499 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $256,499 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $256,499 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $256,499 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $256,499 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $256,499 Active 163 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $256,499 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $255,999 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $254,999 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    price $254,999 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $254,499 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $254,499 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $254,499 Active 155 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    pricedays on market $254,499 Active 154 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $253,999 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $253,999 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $253,999 Active 150 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $253,999 Active 149 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $253,999 Active 148 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $253,999 Active 147 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $253,999 Active 146 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $253,999 Active 145 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $253,999 Active 144 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $253,999 Active 143 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $253,999 Active 141 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $253,999 Active 140 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $253,999 Active 139 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $253,999 Active 137 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $253,999 Active 136 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $253,999 Active 135 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $253,999 Active 134 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    price $253,999 Active 133 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $253,499 Active 133 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $253,499 Active 132 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $253,499 Active 131 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $252,999 Active 130 DOM
39. 2026-06-24
    days on market $252,999 Active 128 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $252,999 Active 126 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $252,999 Active 125 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $252,999 Active 122 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $252,999 Active 121 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $252,999 Active 120 DOM
45. 2026-06-16
    price $252,999 Active 119 DOM
46. 2026-06-15
    days on market $252,499 Active 119 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $252,499 Active 117 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $251,999 Active 113 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $251,999 Active 112 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $251,999 Active 111 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,616
• − Property taxes: −$4,985
• − Insurance: −$1,662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − Depreciation: −$9,668
• Taxable loss: −$13,877
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,330
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Sonterra, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great investment opportunity with high resale and rental value potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

---

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $246,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $249,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $252,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $257,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $257,990 Zillow