Morrow Plan · Jarrell, TX 76537

$228,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,925 sqft · SingleFamily · 220 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottages is a collection of new single-family homes for sale at Cool Water at Sonterra, a masterplan community in Jarrell, TX. Located near IH-35, residents have easy access to local shopping centers such as the Round Rock Premium Outlets and Wolf Ranch Town Center, as well as Jarrell Memorial Park, which features hiking and biking trails. Plus, the family-friendly community is situated within the well-respected Jarrell ISD.

Key facts

• Masterplan community
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 219 days

Tags

• NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
• MASTERPLAN COMMUNITY
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• HIKING AND BIKING TRAILS
• WELL-RESPECTED JARRELL ISD

🏗️ New construction. The $228,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $333,357.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-664 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1040 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 56d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,519 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.54%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,357
• List price: $228,999
• Delta: -25.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Night Riders Way	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,983 (+3%)	0mo	$265,000	$134	82
133 Starpacker Ln	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,925 (0%)	5mo	$255,990	$133	81
352 Brannigan Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,925 (0%)	6mo	$260,990	$136	78
145 Hatari Trl	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,945 (+1%)	4mo	$307,990	$158	75
345 Brannigan Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	1,979 (+3%)	6mo	$249,990	$126	73
520 Old Western Pass	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-5%)	1mo	$224,816	$123	68
732 Barbary Coast Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,198 (+14%)	6mo	$318,000	$145	66
208 Night Riders Way	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,121 (+10%)	6mo	$270,000	$127	65
910 Yellow Ribbon Cv	0.57mi	4/3.0	1,888 (-2%)	5mo	$279,276	$148	64
416 Paradise Canyon Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-12%)	3mo	$279,990	$166	54
408 Paradise Canyon Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-12%)	3mo	$271,719	$161	54
104 Hatari Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-12%)	3mo	$274,500	$163	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-102,390
• Equity at exit: $49,705

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-167,030
• Equity at exit: $28,823

Cash invested: $93,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 125 active · 39 under contract
• Months of supply: 22.1 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $276,234 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1040
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,075 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,748
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$417 /mo · $5,000/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-664

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,916

Max offer price $237,203

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-434	-5% $-549	+0% $-664	+5% $-780	+10% $-895
Rent	-10% $-828	-5% $-746	+0% $-664	+5% $-583	+10% $-501
Rate	-1.0pp $-497	-0.5pp $-580	base $-664	+0.5pp $-751	+1.0pp $-839

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,339
• Closing costs: $10,001
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,800	$1.13	0d	1	0.02mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	4d	1	0.03mi
128 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$1,900	$0.84	24d	1	0.04mi
128 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2358	$1,875	$0.80	0d	1	0.04mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,528	$1.43	0d	1	0.07mi
316 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2560	$2,095	$0.82	139d	1	0.10mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	98d	1	0.10mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$1,830	$0.99	60d	1	0.10mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	103d	1	0.12mi
332 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1877	$1,875	$1.00	0d	1	0.14mi
229 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$1,800	$0.93	83d	1	0.16mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	56d	1	0.17mi
524 Barbary Coast Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	3.0	2552	$2,295	$0.90	29d	1	0.19mi
125 Paradise Canyon Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,095	$1.61	78d	1	0.20mi
216 The Duke Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,700	$1.20	77d	1	0.23mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	112d	1	0.26mi
229 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,600	$0.98	24d	1	0.28mi
113 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,500	$1.06	79d	1	0.28mi
137 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	43d	1	0.30mi
224 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,100	$0.80	58d	1	0.30mi
149 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	0.31mi
153 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	63d	1	0.31mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	93d	1	0.33mi
1109 Paradise Canyon Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1851	$1,950	$1.05	0d	1	0.38mi
204 Robert Hightower Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1676	$1,750	$1.04	0d	1	0.54mi
130 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,835	$1.15	43d	1	0.62mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	113d	1	0.65mi
521 Colonel McNally Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.5	2579	$1,995	$0.77	40d	1	0.66mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2399	$2,095	$0.87	100d	1	0.66mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2468	$2,095	$0.85	93d	1	0.66mi
261 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1845	$1,975	$1.07	0d	1	0.68mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,799	$1.20	88d	1	0.76mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,795	$0.94	24d	1	0.78mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,795	$0.94	42d	1	0.78mi
516 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,750	$0.99	10d	1	0.80mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	112d	1	0.81mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	115d	1	0.81mi
604 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,795	$1.03	24d	1	0.82mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	139d	1	0.84mi
712 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$2,000	$1.24	24d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $228,999 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $228,999 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $248,999 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $248,999 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $248,999 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $248,999 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $248,999 Active 214 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $251,999 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $251,999 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $251,999 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $251,999 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $251,999 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $251,999 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $251,999 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $251,999 Active 201 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $251,999 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $251,999 Active 199 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $253,999 Active 196 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $253,999 Active 195 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $253,999 Active 194 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $253,999 Active 193 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $253,999 Active 192 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $253,999 Active 191 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $253,999 Active 190 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $253,999 Active 189 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $253,999 Active 188 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $253,999 Active 187 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $253,999 Active 186 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $253,999 Active 185 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $253,999 Active 184 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $253,999 Active 183 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $253,999 Active 182 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $253,999 Active 181 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $253,999 Active 180 DOM
35. 2026-08-15
    price $253,999 Active 179 DOM
36. 2026-08-14
    days on market $256,499 Active 179 DOM
37. 2026-08-13
    days on market $256,499 Active 178 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $256,499 Active 176 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $256,499 Active 175 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $256,499 Active 174 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $256,499 Active 173 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $256,499 Active 171 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $256,499 Active 170 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $256,499 Active 169 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $256,499 Active 168 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $256,499 Active 165 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $256,499 Active 164 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $256,499 Active 163 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $256,499 Active 162 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $255,999 Active 160 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,673
• − Property taxes: −$5,000
• − Insurance: −$1,667
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,992
• − Management: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$9,698
• Taxable loss: −$14,122
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,389
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Sonterra, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great investment opportunity with high resale and rental value potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

---

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $246,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $249,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $252,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $257,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $257,990 Zillow