419 W Main St · Lometa, TX 76853

$98,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,222 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2006 0.26 ac lot ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located in Lometa, this property presents a great opportunity for cash or conventional buyers looking for a renovation project with potential. Sitting on a spacious lot, the home offers a functional layout, generous living spaces, and plenty of opportunity for someone ready to bring their vision and updates to life. The kitchen features an island and gas range, and the home includes a mix of hardwood, tile, vinyl, carpet, and concrete flooring throughout. While the property does need renovations and updating, it offers solid potential for a primary residence, investment property, rental, or weekend retreat once improvements are completed. Conveniently located near local schools and everyday

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Spacious lot
• Functional layout

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• GAS RANGE
• HARDWOOD FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property lot about a quarter to half acre (0.261 acres)
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Road frontage on city street; Gravel road surface; Water body nearby (see remarks)
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Facing/other details not provided
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Shingle/composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Some gas appliances (see remarks)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating via fireplace(s); Cooling with wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: All bedrooms on main level; Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen island; Fireplace (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#755 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lometa ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #969 of 1,141 in TX (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lampasas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($678 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Lampasas County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,530 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.05%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,532
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 S 5th St	0.43mi	3/2.0	2,028 (-9%)	20mo	$215,000	$106	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $50,156
• Equity at exit: $61,519

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $130,423
• Equity at exit: $111,485

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76853

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,479/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $858

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $372	+0% $344	+5% $316	+10% $289
Rent	-10% $242	-5% $293	+0% $344	+5% $395	+10% $446
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $369	base $344	+0.5pp $319	+1.0pp $293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $98,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $98,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $98,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $98,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,000 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-28
    listed $98,000 Active
19. 2025-02-13
    historical
20. 2024-08-21
    price $115,000
21. 2024-05-11
    price $120,000
22. 2024-03-19
    price $135,000
23. 2024-02-13
    listed $145,000 Active
24. 2003-10-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,479 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,793 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$314/yr (+$26/mo · 21.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$1,479
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,242
• − Management: −$1,242
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $2,734
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$656
• After-tax cash flow: $3,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lometa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827960
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,735
• Composite: 29.87/100
• National rank: #11690
• State rank: #969 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Lometa

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #755
• US rank: #13895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lometa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,653

Population outlook (Lampasas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,114 people
• By 2030: 22,779 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 23,812 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 24,403 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 25,713 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 25,053 · +13.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lampasas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.6) · D 19.8% · R 79.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.5pp toward R · 2008: -49.1pp · 2024: -59.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.6 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+57.8 2008: R+49.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.99%
• Current HPI: 129.7111
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-32.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $98,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $115,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-05-11 Price Changed $120,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-03-19 Price Changed $135,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-02-13 Listed $145,000 CTXMLS
• 2003-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,479 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.