Plan 1541 Modeled Plan · Mascotte, FL 34753

$316,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,541 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 956 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $316,990; Address: Mascotte, FL 34753

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Plan 1541 Modeled (new construction plan); Single-family plan
• Exterior features: Living area 1,541 (interior size provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Virtual tour available

🏗️ New construction. The $316,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $339,020.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $317k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-538 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mascotte Elementary School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 855 students, 62% FRL, charter); Gray Middle School (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 1,148 students, 47% FRL); South Lake High School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,169 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,501 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.80%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,020
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3324 Pink Oleander Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,541 (0%)	10mo	$338,350	$220	83
1651 Geranium Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,541 (0%)	22mo	$348,000	$226	82
1638 Geranium Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,541 (0%)	24mo	$343,980	$223	78
1948 Piedmont Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+9%)	6mo	$305,000	$182	74
5040 Pine Needle Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,435 (-7%)	3mo	$272,900	$190	64
1725 Garden View St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,701 (+10%)	7mo	$262,000	$154	52
290 Tuscanooga Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+4%)	16mo	$400,000	$251	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $150,425
• Equity at exit: $305,416

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $469,979
• Equity at exit: $658,641

Cash invested: $94,926 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34753

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,285 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$424 /mo · $5,085/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,966

Max offer price $261,209

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-303	-5% $-421	+0% $-538	+5% $-655	+10% $-772
Rent	-10% $-718	-5% $-628	+0% $-538	+5% $-447	+10% $-357
Rate	-1.0pp $-367	-0.5pp $-452	base $-538	+0.5pp $-626	+1.0pp $-715

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,755
• Closing costs: $10,171
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1665 Luft Ln Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,030	$1.21	25d	1	0.15mi
1341 Brenway Dr Mascotte, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,280	$1.23	0d	1	0.34mi
2425 Begonia St Mascotte, FL	4.0	2.0	1983	$2,350	$1.19	25d	1	0.39mi
232 Boca Ciega Rd Mascotte, FL	4.0	2.0	1280	$2,095	$1.64	14d	1	0.49mi
614 Huey St Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,936	$1.23	0d	1	0.53mi
1600 Mayaro Ct Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,000	$1.33	19d	1	0.65mi
4025 E Cardinal Pines Dr Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,100	$1.67	6d	1	0.70mi
405 Eventide Ave Mascotte, FL	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,250	$1.12	22d	1	1.25mi
6337 Chorus Dr Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,250	$1.27	25d	1	1.40mi
6612 Tempo Way Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,600	$1.31	0d	1	1.49mi
6612 Tempo Way Mascotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,600	$1.31	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $316,990 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $316,990 Active 953 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $316,990 Active 952 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $316,990 Active 951 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $316,990 Active 950 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $316,990 Active 948 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $316,990 Active 944 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $316,990 Active 943 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $316,990 Active 942 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $316,990 Active 939 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $316,990 Active 938 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $316,990 Active 937 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $316,990 Active 936 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $316,990 Active 935 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,990
• − Property taxes: −$5,085
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,194
• − Management: −$2,194
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$12,600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,024
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mascotte

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #7156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mascotte, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 33,565
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,985
• Household income: $83,868
• Rent vs Own: 22.5% rent · 77.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 16.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 25% Black 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.01%
• Current HPI: 281.96
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B