47 Castle Harbor Dr · Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ 08757

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1975 5,227 sqft lot Est $310k · 27% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CALLING ALL INVESTORS & CONTRACTORS! Opportunity knocks in the desirable Holiday City Berkeley adult community. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home with a garageis the Yellowstone model and offers great potential for the savvy investor/contractor. This is a strictly ''as is, where is'' sale. Roof is 5 years old was replaced in 2021. Furnace is about 7 years old. Public water and public sewer. Ask your agent for a copy of the pre-market home and termite inspection reports, so you can bid with confidence. Cash buyers and a quick closing preferred.

Key facts

• Public sewer
• Roof is 5 years old
• Yellowstone model

Tags

• YELLOWSTONE MODEL
• ROOF IS 5 YEARS OLD
• FURNACE IS ABOUT 7 YEARS OLD
• PUBLIC WATER
• PUBLIC SEWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (Holiday City Berkeley) with monthly fee of $50; HOA amenities include pool, clubhouse, common area access, lawn maintenance, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: Yellowstone; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with standard appliances: Stove, Refrigerator, Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (all on the first level)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Dishwasher, Stove, Refrigerator, Garage door opener included; Crawl space basement; Living room, Kitchen, Den
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.2% in Holiday City-Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,486/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $225k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.55%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,224
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Bonaire Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,124 (0%)	1mo	$240,100	$214	79
18 Saint David Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,124 (0%)	1mo	$305,000	$271	76
37 Oranjestad St	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,124 (0%)	2mo	$242,500	$216	75
17 Palmetto Point St	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,092 (-3%)	2mo	$382,500	$350	68
22 Down Ct	0.61mi	2/1.5	1,140 (+1%)	2mo	$330,000	$289	66
9 Port Royal Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$420,000	$341	64
11 Palmetto Point St	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,034 (-8%)	2mo	$325,000	$314	59
1 Miramar Ct	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$335,000	$272	55
60 Biabou Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$320,000	$260	55
25 Spanish Wells St	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$340,000	$276	54
1130 Dell St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	988 (-12%)	1mo	$430,000	$435	42
211 Bonaire Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,264 (+12%)	1mo	$305,000	$241	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-11,173
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $22,958
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,486 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,932/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,985

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	6d	1	0.57mi
59 Guadeloupe Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1126	$2,300	$2.04	1d	1	0.75mi
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	1d	1	0.77mi
2 York St Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1105	$2,200	$1.99	1d	1	0.88mi
10 Purnell St Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	1d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $225,000 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $225,000 Active 548-char remark
15. 2003-05-05
    soldstatus $124,000
16. 2003-02-28
    historical
17. 2002-10-28
    listed $124,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,932 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,267 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,335/yr (+$111/mo · 45.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,932
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,387
• − Management: −$2,387
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $1,258
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$302
• After-tax cash flow: $4,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City-Berkeley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 35,652
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+80.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $225,000 MOMLS
• 2003-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-28 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2002-10-28 Listed $124,900 MOMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,932 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.