2521 Violet St · Carlsbad, NM 88220

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,567 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2009 6,144 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Let's take a look at this beautiful 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home. Property is centrally located. This traditional floor plan delivers a casual living room with carpeting, dining room, master suite with his-and-her closets, dual sinks, separate shower, inviting kitchen with microwave, garbage disposal, dishwasher, electric range. The home has a new roof in 2023 and New A/C less than a month old. The home has such an entertaining back yard with covered patio. This one won't last long!

Key facts

• A/c system
• Covered carport
• Kitchen refrigerator

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• A/C SYSTEM
• KITCHEN REFRIGERATOR
• KITCHEN STOVE
• COVERED CARPORT
• MODERN GOVEE LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-858/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#20 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, schools D.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,241 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-50,824
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-50,481
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88220

• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,903/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,243

Max offer price $272,372

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
506 Southern Sky St Carlsbad, NM	4.0	2.0	2100	$3,500	$1.67	44d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $285,000 Active
3. 2024-09-27
   soldstatus Closed 481-char remark

   Show marketing remark (481 chars)

   Let's take a look at this beautiful 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home. Property is centrally located. This traditional floor plan delivers a casual living room with carpeting, dining room, master suite with his-and-her closets, dual sinks, separate shower, inviting kitchen with microwave, garbage disposal, dishwasher, electric range. The home has a new roof in 2023 and New A/C less than a month old. The home has such an entertaining back yard with covered patio. This one won't last long!

4. 2024-09-27
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (481 chars)

   Let's take a look at this beautiful 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home. Property is centrally located. This traditional floor plan delivers a casual living room with carpeting, dining room, master suite with his-and-her closets, dual sinks, separate shower, inviting kitchen with microwave, garbage disposal, dishwasher, electric range. The home has a new roof in 2023 and New A/C less than a month old. The home has such an entertaining back yard with covered patio. This one won't last long!

5. 2024-08-26
   status Pending 481-char remark

   Show marketing remark (481 chars)

   Let's take a look at this beautiful 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home. Property is centrally located. This traditional floor plan delivers a casual living room with carpeting, dining room, master suite with his-and-her closets, dual sinks, separate shower, inviting kitchen with microwave, garbage disposal, dishwasher, electric range. The home has a new roof in 2023 and New A/C less than a month old. The home has such an entertaining back yard with covered patio. This one won't last long!

6. 2024-08-12
   status Active 481-char remark

   Show marketing remark (481 chars)

   Let's take a look at this beautiful 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home. Property is centrally located. This traditional floor plan delivers a casual living room with carpeting, dining room, master suite with his-and-her closets, dual sinks, separate shower, inviting kitchen with microwave, garbage disposal, dishwasher, electric range. The home has a new roof in 2023 and New A/C less than a month old. The home has such an entertaining back yard with covered patio. This one won't last long!

7. 2024-07-19
   status Pending 481-char remark

   Show marketing remark (481 chars)

   Let's take a look at this beautiful 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home. Property is centrally located. This traditional floor plan delivers a casual living room with carpeting, dining room, master suite with his-and-her closets, dual sinks, separate shower, inviting kitchen with microwave, garbage disposal, dishwasher, electric range. The home has a new roof in 2023 and New A/C less than a month old. The home has such an entertaining back yard with covered patio. This one won't last long!

8. 2024-07-17
   listed $247,000 Active 481-char remark

   Show marketing remark (481 chars)

   Let's take a look at this beautiful 3 bedroom/ 2 bath home. Property is centrally located. This traditional floor plan delivers a casual living room with carpeting, dining room, master suite with his-and-her closets, dual sinks, separate shower, inviting kitchen with microwave, garbage disposal, dishwasher, electric range. The home has a new roof in 2023 and New A/C less than a month old. The home has such an entertaining back yard with covered patio. This one won't last long!

9. 2017-10-18
   soldstatus 382-char remark

   Show marketing remark (382 chars)

   Check out this newer Ken Thurston home, only 8 years old! You'll enjoy this 3-bedroom/2-bath home easy drive to restaurants & shopping center. This traditional floor plan delivers a casual living room with carpeting, dining room, master suite with his-and-her closets, dual sinks, separate shower, inviting kitchen with microwave, garbage disposal, dishwasher, electric range.

10. 2017-10-18
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Check out this newer Ken Thurston home, only 8 years old! You'll enjoy this 3-bedroom/2-bath home easy drive to restaurants & shopping center. This traditional floor plan delivers a casual living room with carpeting, dining room, master suite with his-and-her closets, dual sinks, separate shower, inviting kitchen with microwave, garbage disposal, dishwasher, electric range.

11. 2017-05-30
    listed $167,500 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Check out this newer Ken Thurston home, only 8 years old! You'll enjoy this 3-bedroom/2-bath home easy drive to restaurants & shopping center. This traditional floor plan delivers a casual living room with carpeting, dining room, master suite with his-and-her closets, dual sinks, separate shower, inviting kitchen with microwave, garbage disposal, dishwasher, electric range.

12. 2012-08-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,903 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,280 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$377/yr (+$31/mo · 19.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,903
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$5,887
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,413
• After-tax cash flow: $555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #7925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, NM
• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 39,828
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $78,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 46% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.72%
• Current HPI: 114.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+70.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $285,000 NMMLS
• 2024-09-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-09-27 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2024-08-26 Pending — NMMLS
• 2024-08-12 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2024-07-19 Pending — NMMLS
• 2024-07-17 Listed $247,000 NMMLS
• 2017-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-10-18 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2017-05-30 Listed $167,500 NMMLS
• 2012-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,903 · +33.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.