409 Dixon St · Cleburne, TX 76033

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1950 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous 3-2-2 home on Corner lot with tons of Pecan Trees now offered, but wait, there's more! More storage than most, both inside and out. Apprx. 600 sq ft (NOT ON JAD) in UNFINISHED space above garage. (Game room or Apartment) 11x19 Workshop addition to 2 car garage. Kitchen updates include stainless steel, beautiful glass insert back splash, cabinets and counter tops, bathroom updates too. Gorgeous original hard wood floors in formal living and dining with picture window. 2 fireplaces. Floored attic for extra storage. Pantry(s) updated with pull out drawers. Enjoy entertaining at the Tiki bar under covered patio while grilling on the open patio using gas grill that will convey with home. A true must see!

Key facts

• Mature pecan trees
• Corner lot
• Two fireplaces

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MATURE PECAN TREES
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• MULTIPLE DINING AREAS
• TWO FIREPLACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Multiple structures include garage(s) and a guest house; Will not subdivide
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Loan type: Treat as clear; Second mortgage: No
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage (garage faces side); Concrete parking surfaces
• Security: Security features: Unknown
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Cable available; Asphalt access; Municipal utility district: No
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Accessory unit present (640 sq ft); One story; Property not attached
• Construction: Built in 1950 (preowned); Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch; Rear porch; Wood fencing; Corner lot; Cleared vegetation; Easement for utilities; Accessory guest house on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Kitchen plumbed for gas
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Two living areas; Two dining areas; One-level layout
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gerard El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 567 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cleburne ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 660 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.31%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,090
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1016 Sheridan Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	2,070 (-14%)	3mo	$264,999	$128	58
1006 Princeton Pl	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,678 (+11%)	6mo	$400,000	$149	58
1105 Grand Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	2,193 (-9%)	18mo	$399,000	$182	56
109 Driftwood Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,208 (-8%)	11mo	$329,990	$149	43
501 Shaw St	0.38mi	3/2.5	2,064 (-14%)	22mo	$279,000	$135	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,506
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $11,353
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76033

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 660
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,952 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,149/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,407

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 Madison St Unit Na Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1645	$1,975	$1.20	43d	1	0.12mi
413 Shaw St Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1713	$2,100	$1.23	43d	1	0.41mi
1434 Trail Creek Dr Cleburne, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	2129	$2,350	$1.10	22d	1	0.57mi
226 Seclusion Dr Cleburne, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1641	$2,205	$1.34	1d	1	0.81mi
414 Rose Ave Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,214	$1.26	2d	1	0.82mi
404 Rose Ave Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,249	$1.28	7d	1	0.84mi
704 S Anglin St Cleburne, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,110	$1.05	24d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $150,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active Option Contract 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active Option Contract 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active Option Contract 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active Option Contract 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active Option Contract 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active Option Contract 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active Option Contract 7 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active Option Contract 6 DOM
10. 2026-05-25
    listed $150,000 Active
11. 2017-09-26
    soldstatus
12. 2017-09-19
    soldstatus Sold 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Fabulous 3-2-2 home on Corner lot with tons of Pecan Trees now offered, but wait, there's more! More storage than most, both inside and out. Apprx. 600 sq ft (NOT ON JAD) in UNFINISHED space above garage. (Game room or Apartment) 11x19 Workshop addition to 2 car garage. Kitchen updates include stainless steel, beautiful glass insert back splash, cabinets and counter tops, bathroom updates too. Gorgeous original hard wood floors in formal living and dining with picture window. 2 fireplaces. Floored attic for extra storage. Pantry(s) updated with pull out drawers. Enjoy entertaining at the Tiki bar under covered patio while grilling on the open patio using gas grill that will convey with home. A true must see!

13. 2017-09-08
    status Pending 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Fabulous 3-2-2 home on Corner lot with tons of Pecan Trees now offered, but wait, there's more! More storage than most, both inside and out. Apprx. 600 sq ft (NOT ON JAD) in UNFINISHED space above garage. (Game room or Apartment) 11x19 Workshop addition to 2 car garage. Kitchen updates include stainless steel, beautiful glass insert back splash, cabinets and counter tops, bathroom updates too. Gorgeous original hard wood floors in formal living and dining with picture window. 2 fireplaces. Floored attic for extra storage. Pantry(s) updated with pull out drawers. Enjoy entertaining at the Tiki bar under covered patio while grilling on the open patio using gas grill that will convey with home. A true must see!

14. 2017-09-01
    historical Active Option Contract 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Fabulous 3-2-2 home on Corner lot with tons of Pecan Trees now offered, but wait, there's more! More storage than most, both inside and out. Apprx. 600 sq ft (NOT ON JAD) in UNFINISHED space above garage. (Game room or Apartment) 11x19 Workshop addition to 2 car garage. Kitchen updates include stainless steel, beautiful glass insert back splash, cabinets and counter tops, bathroom updates too. Gorgeous original hard wood floors in formal living and dining with picture window. 2 fireplaces. Floored attic for extra storage. Pantry(s) updated with pull out drawers. Enjoy entertaining at the Tiki bar under covered patio while grilling on the open patio using gas grill that will convey with home. A true must see!

15. 2017-08-29
    price $119,900 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Fabulous 3-2-2 home on Corner lot with tons of Pecan Trees now offered, but wait, there's more! More storage than most, both inside and out. Apprx. 600 sq ft (NOT ON JAD) in UNFINISHED space above garage. (Game room or Apartment) 11x19 Workshop addition to 2 car garage. Kitchen updates include stainless steel, beautiful glass insert back splash, cabinets and counter tops, bathroom updates too. Gorgeous original hard wood floors in formal living and dining with picture window. 2 fireplaces. Floored attic for extra storage. Pantry(s) updated with pull out drawers. Enjoy entertaining at the Tiki bar under covered patio while grilling on the open patio using gas grill that will convey with home. A true must see!

16. 2017-08-17
    listed $129,900 Active 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Fabulous 3-2-2 home on Corner lot with tons of Pecan Trees now offered, but wait, there's more! More storage than most, both inside and out. Apprx. 600 sq ft (NOT ON JAD) in UNFINISHED space above garage. (Game room or Apartment) 11x19 Workshop addition to 2 car garage. Kitchen updates include stainless steel, beautiful glass insert back splash, cabinets and counter tops, bathroom updates too. Gorgeous original hard wood floors in formal living and dining with picture window. 2 fireplaces. Floored attic for extra storage. Pantry(s) updated with pull out drawers. Enjoy entertaining at the Tiki bar under covered patio while grilling on the open patio using gas grill that will convey with home. A true must see!

17. 2002-06-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,149 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,149 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,149
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,016
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$724
• After-tax cash flow: $4,447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleburne, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 29,538
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,538
• Household income: $76,292
• Rent vs Own: 37.4% rent · 62.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 927.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Guatemala, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.75%
• Current HPI: 246.0029
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2017-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-09-19 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2017-09-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2017-09-01 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2017-08-29 Price Changed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2017-08-17 Listed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2002-06-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,149 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.