Hickory III A Plan · Covington, LA 70435

$384,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 252 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

- Open Floor Plan - Five Bedrooms, Three Bathrooms - Recessed Can Lighting in Kitchen & Living Room - Walk-In Pantry - Boot Bench at Garage Entry - Double Master Vanity - Separate Master Shower - Walk-In Master Closet - Brick & Stucco Exterior - Covered Rear Porch - Two Car Garage

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Boot bench
• Double master vanity

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RECESSED CAN LIGHTING
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• BOOT BENCH
• DOUBLE MASTER VANITY
• SEPARATE MASTER SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $384,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $477,317.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $385k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (38.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 4.0% in Covington — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Covington Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #108 of 646 statewide, top 18%, 628 students, 59% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #119 of 218 statewide, top 57%, 635 students, 62% FRL); Covington High School (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #90 of 265 statewide, top 34%, 1,660 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 40% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 503 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $237,203 (38.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.79%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $477,317
• List price: $384,990
• Delta: -19.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
621 Ramsey Spring Dr	0.05mi	5/3.0	2,720 (0%)	0mo	$388,755	$143	98
733 Northlake Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,424 (-11%)	0mo	$384,657	$159	72
76021 Green Valley Rd	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,784 (+2%)	22mo	$525,000	$189	45
13267 Riverlake Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,187 (+17%)	20mo	$558,000	$175	40
14034 S Lakeshore Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,224 (-18%)	10mo	$413,277	$186	36
13603 Riverlake Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,206 (-19%)	5mo	$425,000	$193	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-168,052
• Equity at exit: $71,169

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.97×
• Total profit: $-263,035
• Equity at exit: $41,270

Cash invested: $133,649 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 66.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $365,990 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 191 d
• This list price: 70% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70435

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 503
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,372 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,503
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$597 /mo · $7,160/yr
• Insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-1,425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,175

Max offer price $271,157

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,095	-5% $-1,260	+0% $-1,425	+5% $-1,590	+10% $-1,755
Rent	-10% $-1,612	-5% $-1,518	+0% $-1,425	+5% $-1,331	+10% $-1,237
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,184	-0.5pp $-1,303	base $-1,425	+0.5pp $-1,548	+1.0pp $-1,674

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,329
• Closing costs: $14,320
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $384,990 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $384,990 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $384,990 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $384,990 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $384,990 Active 248 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $384,990 Active 247 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $384,990 Active 246 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $384,990 Active 245 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $384,990 Active 244 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $384,990 Active 243 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $384,990 Active 242 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $384,990 Active 241 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $384,990 Active 234 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $384,990 Active 233 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $384,990 Active 232 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $384,990 Active 229 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $384,990 Active 227 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $384,990 Active 226 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $384,990 Active 225 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $384,990 Active 223 DOM
21. 2026-08-23
    days on market $384,990 Active 221 DOM
22. 2026-08-22
    days on market $384,990 Active 220 DOM
23. 2026-08-21
    days on market $384,990 Active 219 DOM
24. 2026-08-20
    days on market $384,990 Active 218 DOM
25. 2026-08-19
    days on market $384,990 Active 217 DOM
26. 2026-08-18
    days on market $384,990 Active 216 DOM
27. 2026-08-17
    days on market $384,990 Active 215 DOM
28. 2026-08-16
    days on market $384,990 Active 214 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    days on market $384,990 Active 213 DOM
30. 2026-08-14
    days on market $384,990 Active 212 DOM
31. 2026-08-13
    days on market $384,990 Active 211 DOM
32. 2026-08-12
    days on market $384,990 Active 210 DOM
33. 2026-08-11
    days on market $384,990 Active 209 DOM
34. 2026-08-10
    days on market $384,990 Active 208 DOM
35. 2026-08-09
    days on market $384,990 Active 207 DOM
36. 2026-08-08
    days on market $384,990 Active 206 DOM
37. 2026-08-07
    days on market $384,990 Active 205 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $384,990 Active 204 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $384,990 Active 203 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $384,990 Active 202 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $384,990 Active 201 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $384,990 Active 198 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $384,990 Active 196 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $384,990 Active 195 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $384,990 Active 193 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $384,990 Active 191 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $384,990 Active 190 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $384,990 Active 189 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $384,990 Active 188 DOM
50. 2026-07-20
    days on market $384,990 Active 187 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,737
• − Property taxes: −$7,160
• − Insurance: −$2,387
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,277
• − Management: −$2,277
• − Depreciation: −$13,886
• Taxable loss: −$26,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,302
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $13,600–$40,800 screening

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good layout and potential for value increases through landscaping and interior updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Covington Elementary School C- LA #108/646 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle William Pitcher Junior High School F LA #112/218 Nat'l #8,750/14,009 High Covington High School F LA #90/265 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Covington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 286,725 people
• City population: 64,351
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 22,475
• Household income: $80,926
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.03%
• Current HPI: 202.0458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $384,990 Zillow