301 Ripley Rd · Spring Lake, NC 28326

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1998 0.50 ac lot Est $207k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is full of character and ready for its next chapter. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath property offers a spacious and functional layout with room for both everyday living and entertaining. The generously sized bedrooms provide flexibility for a variety of needs. Outside, the yard offers plenty of room to enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Major components have been updated! 2021 metal roof, 2018 HVAC, and 2023 water heater. With its solid layout and welcoming feel, this home is full of potential to fix up and add your own personal style.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 47 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RA-20R
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured house; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Half-acre lot; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Heat pump
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.5% in Spring Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#543 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnsonville Elementary (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #975 of 1,410 statewide, top 71%, 475 students, 99% FRL); Overhills High (math 52% / reading 63%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,971 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 51% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $130k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.93%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,976
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
190 Pine Oak	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	7mo	$228,000	$162	58
151 Pine Oak Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	3mo	$230,000	$152	46
170 Pine Oak	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+11%)	9mo	$230,000	$154	46
301 Pine Oak	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+12%)	9mo	$213,000	$141	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $30,829
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $93,277
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28326

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $626/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $998

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $891	-5% $854	+0% $817	+5% $780	+10% $743
Rent	-10% $656	-5% $737	+0% $817	+5% $897	+10% $977
Rate	-1.0pp $882	-0.5pp $850	base $817	+0.5pp $783	+1.0pp $749

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $130,000 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $130,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $155,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $165,000 Active
17. 2007-12-21
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $626 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,066 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$440/yr (+$37/mo · 70.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$626
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $8,140
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,954
• After-tax cash flow: $7,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Spring Lake

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #543
• US rank: #19811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• City population: 24,000
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 26,068
• Household income: $75,431
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 456.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.96%
• Current HPI: 226.8295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+312.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $165,000 TMLS
• 2007-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $626 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.