1495 Leonards Fork Church Rd · Crouse, NC 28092

$189,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2004 0.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special or home perfect for growing family. 3 bedrooms but office has closet and window. open floor plan, over 2000sf delivered at under $100 a sf. very quiet area. open floorplan with large kitchen. Home needs love, needs new flooring as well as new deck, painting and some drywall. in the process of moving, will add more pictures soon. Home is being sold " as is", condition is reflected in price

Key facts

• 0.72 acre lot
• Built 2004
• Listed 24 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system
• Home design: Single-family manufactured doublewide; One level
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Vinyl exterior; Crawl space foundation; Built by Champion
• Exterior features: Lot is approximately 0.72 acres; Road surfaces include dirt and paved; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lincoln County Schools (rural): math 57% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #42 of 178 in NC (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 697 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $189k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,752 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.24%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-26,422
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,219
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28092

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,648 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,066/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,467

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $196	+0% $143	+5% $89	+10% $36
Rent	-10% $13	-5% $78	+0% $143	+5% $208	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $191	base $143	+0.5pp $94	+1.0pp $44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    listed $189,000 Active
16. 2025-08-10
    price $165,000
17. 2025-06-20
    listed $180,000 Active
18. 2006-06-30
    soldstatus $90,000
19. 2005-07-25
    soldstatus $97,500
20. 2004-04-28
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,066 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,550 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$484/yr (+$40/mo · 45.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,066
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$1,489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$357
• After-tax cash flow: $2,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702680
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,203
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #2242
• State rank: #42 of 178 in NC

Livability — Crouse

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Lincoln County · 69,118 people
• Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
• Population (ZIP): 40,350
• Household income: $60,984
• Rent vs Own: 30.0% rent · 70.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1134.0

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,972 people
• By 2030: 89,467 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 93,107 · +7.1%
• By 2050: 94,304 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 95,190 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 90,096 · +3.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.7) · D 26.8% · R 72.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.3pp · 2024: -45.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.7 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+47.7 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+33.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.94%
• Current HPI: 306.3997
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.58%
• Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+626.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $189,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-10 Price Changed $165,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Listed $180,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 2004-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,066 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.