5812 Cedars Rd #36 · Redding, CA 96001

$97,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 730 sqft · Manufactured public records · 110 Days on market

Built 2021

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent location! Overlooking the greenbelt at the back of the community! Now is the time to purchase this new, never lived in 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Redding, CA. We are offering some of the LOWEST PRICING IN ALL OF CALIFORNIA!! Low maintenance yards in the front and back of home. Family/friendly community looking for a new owner. Community has recently been resurfaced.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2021
• Listed 110 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease listed separately
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Cable available; Individual electric meter; Public sewer; Water from district
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Single wide; Clayton make; Built in 2021
• Construction: Composition roof; Vinyl skirting
• Exterior features: Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Skylight in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fan(s); Wall unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Skylights in the living room and kitchen; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sycamore Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #779 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 244 students, 75% FRL); Sequoia Middle (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #162 of 498 statewide, top 33%, 411 students, 69% FRL); Shasta High (math 53% / reading 76%, grade B-, #165 of 1,170 statewide, top 15%, 1,333 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 16% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,170 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.81%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $48,910
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2200 Jewell Ln #16	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	742 (+2%)	2mo	$59,999	$81	76
5812 Cedars Rd #19	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	660 (-10%)	5mo	$12,500	$19	71
2200 Jewell Ln #28 Ln Unit Rolling Ranch Mobile Home	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	728 (-0%)	12mo	$62,000	$85	71
5812 Cedars Rd #35	0.01mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (-8%)	12mo	$14,000	$21	67
2237 Jewell Ln #2	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-1%)	6mo	$27,500	$38	65
2237 Jewell Ln #4	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	750 (+3%)	8mo	$49,900	$67	62
2237 Jewell Ln #7	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	728 (-0%)	15mo	$30,000	$41	60
5812 Cedars Rd #31	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (+10%)	16mo	$45,000	$56	59
2200 Jewell Ln #8 Ln Unit Rolling Ranch Mobile Home Park	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	798 (+9%)	16mo	$59,900	$75	52
1595 Branstetter Cir	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (+10%)	16mo	$128,500	$161	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $12,080
• Equity at exit: $14,611

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $74,738
• Equity at exit: $8,472

Cash invested: $27,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96001

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$122 /mo · $1,470/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,397

Max offer price $97,990

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $335	+0% $301	+5% $267	+10% $233
Rent	-10% $160	-5% $231	+0% $301	+5% $371	+10% $441
Rate	-1.0pp $350	-0.5pp $326	base $301	+0.5pp $275	+1.0pp $250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,498
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,990 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $97,990 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,990 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,990 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,990 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,990 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $97,990 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,990 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $97,990 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $97,990 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $97,990 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,990 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $97,990 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,990 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,990 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,990 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,990 Active 89 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $97,990 Active 88 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,489
• − Property taxes: −$1,470
• − Insurance: −$5,608
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $2,503
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$601
• After-tax cash flow: $3,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,817
• Household income: $72,484
• Rent vs Own: 39.0% rent · 61.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1458.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.25%
• Current HPI: 291.6191
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.55%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B