6623 16th St N · St. Petersburg, FL 33702

$484,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 239 Days on market

Built 1958 8,120 sqft lot Est $640k · 24% under ↓ 18% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Virtually Staged. Back on market buyer never delivered escrow. This block home has never flooded and it has lots of room! Out with the carpet and in with the new easy care laminate flooring. Fresh interior paint as well. At almost 2900 heated sq ft, there are a lot of interior living options with this block construction home. As it sits, the home is considered a 4 bedroom, 3 full bath home. The bonus room could be converted to a 5th bedroom by adding a separate access to one of the primary bedrooms. Yes! There are two large primary bedrooms. One on each side of the home. The kitchen is centrally located between the living room and family / dining room

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Fresh interior paint
• Block construction

Tags

• EASY CARE LAMINATE FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• TWO LARGE PRIMARY BEDROOMS
• CENTRALLY LOCATED KITCHEN
• SCREENED IN PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Total living area approximately 2,820 square feet; Total building area approximately 3,252 square feet
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Directions: North on 16th Street to address
• Utilities: No water source listed; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Sprinkler well; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One level; Faces west
• Construction: Block construction; Membrane and shingle roof; Slab foundation; Lot about 0.19 acres
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Asphalt road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Radiant ceiling heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combined; Split bedroom floorplan; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $484k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($531/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $427k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $426k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lynch Elementary School (math 47% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 486 students, 67% FRL); Meadowlawn Middle School (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 832 students, 69% FRL); Northeast High School (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,736 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 388 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,267/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 1000% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($426k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $425,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $640,140
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6525 15th St N	0.11mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,443 (-13%)	2mo	$555,000	$227	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-88,065
• Equity at exit: $72,166

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-121,170
• Equity at exit: $41,847

Cash invested: $135,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33702

• Rents YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 388
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,538
• Tax from tax record: −$521 /mo · $6,246/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$896
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,211

Max offer price $484,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $318	-5% $181	+0% $44	+5% $-93	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-124	+0% $44	+5% $213	+10% $381
Rate	-1.0pp $288	-0.5pp $167	base $44	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,000
• Closing costs: $14,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1247 Monticello Blvd N Saint Petersburg, FL	4.0	3.0	3534	$6,995	$1.98	5d	1	1.36mi
1191 87th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	3.0	2322	$4,250	$1.83	26d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $484,000 Pending 239 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $484,000 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $484,000 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $484,000 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $484,000 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $489,000 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $489,000 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $489,000 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $489,000 Active 226 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $489,000 Active 225 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $489,000 Active 223 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $489,000 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-05-21
    price $489,000
14. 2026-05-21
    status Active
15. 2026-05-14
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-23
    price $495,000
17. 2026-02-05
    price $499,000
18. 2026-01-09
    price $525,000
19. 2025-10-14
    listed $549,000 Active
20. 2025-02-05
    price $569,000
21. 2025-01-25
    listed $599,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,246 · $521/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,246 · $521/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,112
• − Property taxes: −$6,246
• − Insurance: −$3,218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,096
• − Management: −$4,096
• − Depreciation: −$14,080
• Taxable loss: −$7,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,834
• After-tax cash flow: $2,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Petersburg

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Petersburg, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 249,151
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,294
• Household income: $67,463
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -516.17%
• Current HPI: 347.1781
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.22%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-18.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $489,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $495,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $499,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $525,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Listed $549,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-05 Price Changed $569,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-25 Listed $599,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,246 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.