3032 Captain Jax Way · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$219,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Townhouse · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,534 sqft lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Open flow sets the tone for this elegant new Crestone II two-story townhome. There are a total of three bedrooms. The first level features a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room, maximizing the interior living space. Two secondary bedrooms and a lavish owner’s suite featuring a full bathroom comprise the second floor. Serenity at Peace Creek Reserve is a masterplan community of new townhomes with a beautiful natural creek. Winter Haven is the chain of lakes city, with over 26 linked together by a canal. There are lots of shops, restaurants, and bike paths. Peace Creek Reserve is what you have been looking

Key facts

• Masterplan community
• Chain of lakes
• Natural creek

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MASTERPLAN COMMUNITY
• NATURAL CREEK
• CHAIN OF LAKES
• BIKE PATHS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3032 Captain Jax Way, Winter Haven, FL 33884; Status: Active; Last modified: 2026-05-27
• Financial info: Listing price: 226,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family home (Spec); Plan: Crestone II
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,386

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec-built home, model/plan named Crestone II

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $220k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (0.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,867

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.91%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-25,233
• Equity at exit: $32,801

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-15,003
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,199 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,945

Max offer price $219,990

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $353	-5% $277	+0% $201	+5% $125	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $114	+0% $201	+5% $287	+10% $374
Rate	-1.0pp $311	-0.5pp $257	base $201	+0.5pp $144	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,998
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1172 Tyler Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1509	$2,200	$1.46	11d	1	0.27mi
1993 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,998	$1.09	24d	1	0.37mi
1708 Teagan Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,250	$1.45	24d	1	0.41mi
2102 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,100	$1.15	15d	1	0.61mi
2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,030	$1.11	24d	1	0.61mi
2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1801	$2,030	$1.13	4d	1	0.61mi
4019 Penelope Ave Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$1,950	$1.08	15d	1	0.77mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $219,990 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,990 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,990 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   status $219,990 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $219,990 Pending 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $219,990 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $219,990 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   price $219,990 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $226,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,111
• − Management: −$2,111
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$276
• After-tax cash flow: $2,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This under-construction townhome is in pristine condition, featuring new construction with no visible signs of wear or damage. It is located in a serene community with a beautiful natural creek and is ideal for both resale and rental markets.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B