13683 Stone Falcon North · Shelby, MI 48315

$600,490

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.42 ac lot 3-car garage $103/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TO BE BUILT! Build time is approx. 9-10 mths. New Homes in Utica Schools. The Austin has an open concept Kitchen, Nook & Great Room that would be perfect for spending time with loved ones. Enjoy a cozy loft to watch your favorite show or read your favorite book. Unwind in your Master Bedroom w/ beautiful En-Suite. When you're away from home, take advantage of everything that is nearby. Close to Partridge Creek mall for eating, shopping, and much more! We include 10 Year Structural & Basement Waterproofing Warranties! Photos are of a decorated model or previously built home.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Cozy loft
• En-suite

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• COZY LOFT
• MASTER BEDROOM
• EN-SUITE
• CLOSE TO PARTRIDGE CREEK MALL
• 10 YEAR STRUCTURAL WARRANTY

🏗️ New construction. The $600,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $831,822.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $600k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-28k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $500k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $450k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $450k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard J Duncan Elementary (math 49% / reading 67%, grade C+, #229 of 1,397 statewide, top 17%, 701 students, 29% FRL); Eisenhower High School (math 44% / reading 66%, grade C, #107 of 713 statewide, top 15%, 1,835 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,500/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($100k/yr) (locally 22% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($546k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $450,000 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.83%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $831,822
• List price: $600,490
• Delta: -27.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13937 Regatta Bay Dr	0.10mi	4/3.5	3,813 (-2%)	7mo	$880,000	$231	82
13937 Regatta Bay Dr	0.10mi	4/3.5	3,813 (-2%)	7mo	$880,000	$231	82
13937 Regatta Bay Dr	0.10mi	4/3.5	3,813 (-2%)	7mo	$880,000	$231	82
56176 Stone Falcon Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	3,725 (-4%)	11mo	$794,675	$213	81
56159 Sailmast Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5	3,546 (-9%)	5mo	$781,708	$220	69
56159 Sailmast Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5	3,546 (-9%)	5mo	$781,708	$220	69
56159 Sailmast Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5	3,546 (-9%)	5mo	$781,708	$220	69
13732 Eagles Way Dr	0.00mi	4/3.5	3,324 (-15%)	4mo	$740,097	$223	68
55735 Bay Oaks Ct	0.32mi	4/3.5	3,424 (-12%)	2mo	$815,000	$238	60
57130 Willow Ridge Blvd	0.64mi	4/3.5	3,828 (-2%)	21mo	$560,000	$146	46
13885 Quail View Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	4,370 (+12%)	18mo	$900,000	$206	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-280,927
• Equity at exit: $124,027

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.86×
• Total profit: $-432,436
• Equity at exit: $71,921

Cash invested: $232,910 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 25 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.7 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $719,900 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 91 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +10.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 48315

• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,040 /mo · $12,477/yr
• Insurance: −$347
• HOA: −$103
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $-2,297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,407

Max offer price $499,510

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,722	-5% $-2,009	+0% $-2,297	+5% $-2,584	+10% $-2,871
Rent	-10% $-2,652	-5% $-2,474	+0% $-2,297	+5% $-2,119	+10% $-1,941
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,878	-0.5pp $-2,085	base $-2,297	+0.5pp $-2,512	+1.0pp $-2,731

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $207,955
• Closing costs: $24,955
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
55740 Beacon Shore Dr Utica, MI	5.0	4.0	3385	$4,500	$1.33	78d	1	0.53mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.42 acres (66 x 143)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $1,240 (about $103.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage with side-facing garage
• Security: Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable availableUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo levelsGround-level entry with stepsNew constructionBrick and vinyl siding
• Construction: Asphalt roofHome warranty included
• Exterior features: Covered porchPaved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing electric ovenMicrowaveGas water heater
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyerSmart thermostatFull unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas dryer hookup

HOA detail $103/mo · $1,236/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $600,490 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $600,490 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $600,490 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $600,490 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $600,490 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $600,490 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $600,490 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $600,490 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $600,490 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $600,490 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $600,490 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $600,490 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $600,490 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $600,490 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $600,490 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $600,490 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $600,490 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $600,490 Active 82 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $600,490 Active 81 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $600,490 Active 80 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $600,490 Active 79 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $600,490 Active 78 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $600,490 Active 77 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $600,490 Active 76 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $600,490 Active 75 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $600,490 Active 74 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $600,490 Active 73 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $600,490 Active 72 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $600,490 Active 71 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $600,490 Active 70 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $600,490 Active 69 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $600,490 Active 68 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $600,490 Active 67 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $600,490 Active 66 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $600,490 Active 65 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $600,490 Active 64 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $600,490 Active 63 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $600,490 Active 62 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $600,490 Active 61 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $600,490 Active 60 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $600,490 Active 58 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $600,490 Active 57 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $600,490 Active 56 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $600,490 Active 55 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $600,490 Active 52 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $600,490 Active 50 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $600,490 Active 49 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $600,490 Active 47 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $600,490 Active 45 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    listing id $600,490 Active 44 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,595
• − Property taxes: −$12,477
• − Insurance: −$4,159
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,320
• − Management: −$4,320
• − HOA: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$24,198
• Taxable loss: −$43,306
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,393
• After-tax cash flow: $-17,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a modern design with high-end finishes and ample space, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring in bathrooms improves functionality and appearance. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances add value and functionality to the kitchen. ↑
• Both Installing smart home technology — Smart home features enhance convenience and energy efficiency, attracting buyers and renters alike. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Richard J Duncan Elementary C+ MI #229/1,397 Nat'l #8,292/41,679 Middle Malow Junior High School B MI #66/493 Nat'l #2,208/14,009 High Eisenhower High School C MI #107/713 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634470
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,953
• Composite: 40.52/100
• National rank: #3709
• State rank: #126 of 540 in MI

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #7973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Macomb · 925,296 people
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 28,428
• Household income: $99,512
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 9% Arabic 4% Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.36%
• Current HPI: 194.9368
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.42 acres (66 x 143)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $1,240 (about $103.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage with side-facing garage
• Security: Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable availableUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo levelsGround-level entry with stepsNew constructionBrick and vinyl siding
• Construction: Asphalt roofHome warranty included
• Exterior features: Covered porchPaved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing electric ovenMicrowaveGas water heater
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyerSmart thermostatFull unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas dryer hookup

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $600,490 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-09 Listed $600,490 MiRealSource-MiMLS