8841 E Winner Rd · Independence, MO 64053

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 966 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1910 3,968 sqft lot $114/sqft · 11% above area Est $99k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic 1.5-story home with a covered front porch, updated main-level flooring, separate living and dining areas, and a functional kitchen with cabinet storage. The upper level provides additional finished space with carpet, and the home also includes a full bathroom and a single-car basement garage. Conveniently located in Independence with easy access to shopping, services, and commuter routes. Buyer to verify square footage, room sizes, taxes, schools, and all property information.

Key facts

• 3,968 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1910

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.0% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in MO, #1,296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Independence 30 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #252 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairmount Elem. (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 312 students, 82% FRL); Clifford H. Nowlin Middle (math 13% / reading 29%, grade F, #342 of 391 statewide, top 88%, 875 students, 80% FRL); Van Horn High (math 13% / reading 27%, grade F, #472 of 521 statewide, top 91%, 1,047 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 58% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.19%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,462
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 10.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8806 E Smart Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	908 (-6%)	6mo	$95,000	$105	74
578 S Oxford Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	990 (+2%)	2mo	$89,000	$90	71
107 N Ditzler Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	934 (-3%)	2mo	$178,500	$191	69
8908 E Thompson Ave	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	859 (-11%)	5mo	$68,500	$80	66
210 N Glenwood Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-1%)	0mo	$106,000	$110	66
8715 E Roberts St	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+9%)	12mo	$20,000	$19	60
716 Lewis Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,062 (+10%)	8mo	$49,000	$46	57
119 N Evanston Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-1%)	3mo	$140,000	$147	56
125 S Brookside St	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	855 (-12%)	4mo	$90,000	$105	53
128 S Arlington Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	884 (-8%)	7mo	$125,000	$141	51
115 N Arlington Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,046 (+8%)	2mo	$169,000	$162	48
604 S Glenwood Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	865 (-10%)	10mo	$50,000	$58	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $73,312
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.67×
• Total profit: $205,374
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64053

• Home prices YoY: 17.9%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,454/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $942

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $273	-5% $241	+0% $210	+5% $179	+10% $148
Rent	-10% $115	-5% $163	+0% $210	+5% $258	+10% $306
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $238	base $210	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8705 E Smart Ave Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,000	$1.33	46d	1	0.26mi
576 S Oxford Ave Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,400	$1.28	46d	1	0.49mi
578 S Oxford Ave Independence, MO	3.0	1.0	990	$1,400	$1.41	0d	1	0.50mi
600 S Glenwood Ave Unit F Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	22d	1	0.57mi
9528 E Winner Rd Independence, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0	730	$1,099	$1.51	46d	1	0.91mi
303 N Huttig Ave Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	640	$1,200	$1.88	0d	1	1.10mi
563 S Ash Ave Unit 3 Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	650	$950	$1.46	4d	1	1.10mi
1601 Blue Ridge Blvd Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	515	$1,025	$1.99	0d	3	1.13mi
1704 S Brookside Ave Independence, MO	4.0	1.0	834	$1,450	$1.74	17d	1	1.30mi
10522 E 10th St S Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,099	$1.08	26d	1	1.39mi
10561 E Lake Dr Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	46d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $110,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $110,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $120,000 Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Classic 1.5-story home with a covered front porch, updated main-level flooring, separate living and dining areas, and a functional kitchen with cabinet storage. The upper level provides additional finished space with carpet, and the home also includes a full bathroom and a single-car basement garage. Conveniently located in Independence with easy access to shopping, services, and commuter routes. Buyer to verify square footage, room sizes, taxes, schools, and all property information.

17. 2026-04-17
    historical $120,000 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Classic 1.5-story home with a covered front porch, updated main-level flooring, separate living and dining areas, and a functional kitchen with cabinet storage. The upper level provides additional finished space with carpet, and the home also includes a full bathroom and a single-car basement garage. Conveniently located in Independence with easy access to shopping, services, and commuter routes. Buyer to verify square footage, room sizes, taxes, schools, and all property information.

18. 2026-03-05
    soldstatus
19. 2025-10-07
    soldstatus
20. 2025-10-07
    soldstatus
21. 2009-09-25
    soldstatus
22. 2009-09-21
    soldstatus 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Totally remodeled 2 story home. Large rooms!! New carpet, freshly painted, all new fixtures, remodeled bath rm. Large country porch in the front with an enclosed porch in back. Lots of room in this home. Ready to move-in!

23. 2008-10-18
    listed $29,900 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Totally remodeled 2 story home. Large rooms!! New carpet, freshly painted, all new fixtures, remodeled bath rm. Large country porch in the front with an enclosed porch in back. Lots of room in this home. Ready to move-in!

24. 2008-04-16
    historical
25. 2008-04-14
    listed $59,900
26. 2007-05-25
    soldstatus
27. 2007-05-14
    soldstatus
28. 2007-03-12
    listed $37,500
29. 2005-06-15
    soldstatus
30. 2005-04-06
    listed $88,000
31. 2005-02-14
    soldstatus
32. 2005-01-11
    listed $22,050
33. 1998-10-09
    soldstatus
34. 1987-08-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,454 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,454 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,454
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $809
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$194
• After-tax cash flow: $2,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independence 30
• NCES district ID: 2915480
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,843
• Composite: 27.04/100
• National rank: #7054
• State rank: #252 of 324 in MO

Livability — Independence

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1296

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Independence, MO
• County: Jackson County · 687,798 people
• City population: 117,675
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 6,775
• Household income: $47,285
• Rent vs Own: 47.3% rent · 52.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 330.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 719,589 people
• By 2030: 731,456 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 746,689 · +3.8%
• By 2050: 749,289 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 736,227 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 668,210 · -7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 12% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: D (+19.3) · D 58.9% · R 39.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.1pp toward R · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 19.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.3 2020: D+22.0 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.69%
• Current HPI: 347.9512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+444.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $120,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Coming Soon $120,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-09-21 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-18 Listed $29,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-16 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-14 Listed $59,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-14 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-12 Listed $37,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-15 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-06 Listed $88,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-14 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-11 Listed $22,050 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,454 · +60.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.