The Oakshire II Plan · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$284,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,897 sqft · SingleFamily · 299 Days on market

Excellent condition $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Oakshire II is a best-selling, one-story home offering four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a large covered rear patio. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you into the home with a formal living room on the opposite side of the garage that can be optioned into a home office/study. The open-concept kitchen, breakfast, and family room area lends itself to a ton of natural light and a cohesive main gathering area. The primary suite is situated at the back of the home for maximum privacy, and a private hallway off the kitchen leads into the three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Covered rear patio
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• COVERED REAR PATIO
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $284,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,834.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-599 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Kathryn Griffis El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 568 students, 34% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 605 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,000 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.18%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,834
• List price: $284,990
• Delta: -9.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3805 Arrowchop Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (-1%)	1mo	$299,990	$160	69
3812 Arrowchop Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (-1%)	9mo	$324,682	$173	63
3804 Arrowchop	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,156 (+14%)	13mo	$368,048	$171	60
4593 County Road 2624	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,890 (-0%)	3mo	$434,900	$230	60
3801 Arrowchop Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,812 (-4%)	4mo	$299,990	$166	60
3808 Arrowchop Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,698 (-10%)	2mo	$289,415	$170	58
3800 Arrowchop Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,663 (-12%)	3mo	$279,990	$168	49
3809 Arrowchop Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-13%)	4mo	$284,990	$173	48
3833 Arrowchop Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,156 (+14%)	11mo	$376,350	$175	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-88,965
• Equity at exit: $46,794

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-126,372
• Equity at exit: $27,135

Cash invested: $87,874 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 45.4 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,990 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,646
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,708/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,809

Max offer price $227,109

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-382	-5% $-491	+0% $-599	+5% $-708	+10% $-816
Rent	-10% $-761	-5% $-680	+0% $-599	+5% $-518	+10% $-437
Rate	-1.0pp $-441	-0.5pp $-520	base $-599	+0.5pp $-681	+1.0pp $-763

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,459
• Closing costs: $9,415
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4067 County Road 2638 Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,050	$1.24	3d	1	0.47mi
4067 County Road 2638 Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,050	$1.24	0d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $284,990 Active 299 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $284,990 Active 298 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $284,990 Active 297 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $284,990 Active 296 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $284,990 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $284,990 Active 293 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $284,990 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $284,990 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $284,990 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $284,990 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $284,990 Active 288 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $284,990 Active 287 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $284,990 Active 286 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $284,990 Active 285 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $284,990 Active 284 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $284,990 Active 283 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $284,990 Active 282 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $284,990 Active 281 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $284,990 Active 280 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $284,990 Active 279 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $284,990 Active 278 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $284,990 Active 277 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $284,990 Active 276 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $284,990 Active 275 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $284,990 Active 274 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $284,990 Active 273 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $284,990 Active 272 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $284,990 Active 271 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $284,990 Active 270 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $284,990 Active 269 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $284,990 Active 268 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $284,990 Active 267 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $284,990 Active 266 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $284,990 Active 265 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $284,990 Active 264 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $284,990 Active 263 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $284,990 Active 262 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $284,990 Active 261 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $284,990 Active 260 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $284,990 Active 259 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $284,990 Active 258 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $284,990 Active 257 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $284,990 Active 256 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $284,990 Active 255 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $284,990 Active 254 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $284,990 Active 253 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $284,990 Active 252 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $284,990 Active 251 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $284,990 Active 250 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $284,990 Active 249 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,580
• − Property taxes: −$4,708
• − Insurance: −$1,569
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$9,130
• Taxable loss: −$12,922
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,101
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no major repairs needed. It has a fresh exterior, well-maintained interior, and a good layout. The property has a good resale and rental value with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and attract more buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can enhance the bathroom's appeal and attract more buyers ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kathryn Griffis El B TX #300/4,322 Nat'l #5,998/41,679 Middle Caddo Mills Middle C+ TX #301/1,662 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Caddo Mills H S B+ TX #82/1,632 Nat'l #1,629/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt · 97,090 people
• City population: 10,265
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,265
• Household income: $95,428
• Rent vs Own: 13.0% rent · 87.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $284,990 Zillow