2814 40th St · Lubbock, TX 79413

$113,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1946 7,950 sqft lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully Renovated 3 Bed, 1 Bath Home with Major Upgrades! Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offering 970 square feet of thoughtfully updated living space. This property has undergone a full cosmetic renovation, featuring fresh finishes throughout that give the home a clean, modern feel while maintaining its charm. Beyond the cosmetic upgrades, several major improvements have already been completed for peace of mind, including a brand-new roof, all new energy-efficient windows, and an upgraded electrical panel. These big-ticket updates add long-term value and help reduce future maintenance concerns. Inside, you'll find a bright and inviting layout with updated floori

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Brand new roof
• Updated flooring

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• MAJOR UPGRADES
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• UPGRADED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• UPDATED FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Public-maintained city street frontage; Lot approximately 0.18 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway parking; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected / available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Wood siding and asbestos exterior materials; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built or measured at 970 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard with chain-link fence; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Double-pane ENERGY STAR windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wheelock El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 323 students, 92% FRL); Slaton Middle (math 13% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 355 students, 96% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 60% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $788 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,530 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.49%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-12,005
• Equity at exit: $16,998

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,231
• Equity at exit: $9,857

Cash invested: $31,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,045 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $733/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $894

Max offer price $113,999

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $152	+0% $119	+5% $87	+10% $55
Rent	-10% $37	-5% $78	+0% $119	+5% $161	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $148	base $119	+0.5pp $90	+1.0pp $60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,500
• Closing costs: $3,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2816 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	826	$825	$1.00	22d	1	0.03mi
3007 39th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$600	$1.00	22d	1	0.11mi
2812 43rd St Unit 6 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$700	$0.63	45d	1	0.20mi
2812 43rd St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$750	$0.68	22d	1	0.21mi
2906 43rd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	870	$850	$0.98	22d	1	0.22mi
3019 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,250	$1.19	22d	1	0.23mi
2723 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	802	$950	$1.18	22d	1	0.24mi
2815 43rd St Unit 11 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1085	$800	$0.74	22d	1	0.25mi
3107 37th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	22d	1	0.29mi
2701 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	802	$1,195	$1.49	14d	1	0.29mi
2605 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	882	$995	$1.13	14d	1	0.29mi
2616 37th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	22d	1	0.29mi
2706 44th St Apt C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$680	$0.76	45d	1	0.30mi
3005 35th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	532	$525	$0.99	45d	1	0.31mi
2521 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	902	$1,195	$1.32	22d	1	0.32mi
3114 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,095	$1.11	45d	1	0.33mi
2521 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$925	$0.93	45d	1	0.33mi
2701 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	657	$888	$1.35	14d	25	0.35mi
3006 46th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1047	$995	$0.95	22d	1	0.38mi
2607 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$1,325	$1.34	45d	1	0.38mi
2514 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	943	$950	$1.01	14d	1	0.38mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	14d	1	0.41mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	45d	1	0.41mi
2823 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1105	$950	$0.86	45d	1	0.42mi
3006 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1016	$1,150	$1.13	22d	1	0.44mi
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	22d	1	0.45mi
3211 35th St Unit E Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	45d	1	0.48mi
3211 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	14d	1	0.48mi
2504 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	939	$995	$1.06	45d	1	0.48mi
4609 Belton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	751	$800	$1.07	45d	1	0.50mi
2601 33rd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	695	$750	$1.08	45d	1	0.51mi
3116 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	45d	1	0.53mi
4613 Belton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	734	$750	$1.02	45d	1	0.53mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,010	$1.00	14d	23	0.56mi
3221 33rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	982	$925	$0.94	14d	1	0.60mi
2409 45th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	45d	1	0.60mi
2408 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1072	$995	$0.93	22d	1	0.61mi
2412 46th St Apt A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	945	$795	$0.84	22d	1	0.63mi
2401 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	680	$845	$1.24	14d	3	0.63mi
2406 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	943	$775	$0.82	22d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $113,999 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $113,999 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $113,999 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $113,999 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $113,999 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $113,999 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $113,999 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $113,999 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $113,999 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $113,999 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $113,999 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $113,999 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $113,999 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $113,999 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $113,999 Active 1052-char remark
16. 2026-04-29
    price $114,000
17. 2026-04-14
    price $117,500
18. 2026-03-19
    price $120,000
19. 2025-08-19
    soldstatus
20. 2002-01-04
    soldstatus
21. 2001-12-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $733 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,086 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,354/yr (+$113/mo · 184.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,386
• − Property taxes: −$733
• − Insurance: −$570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,003
• − Management: −$1,003
• − Depreciation: −$3,316
• Taxable loss: −$468
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$112
• After-tax cash flow: $1,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $113,999 LARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $114,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $117,500 LARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $120,000 LARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-01-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $733 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.